Paide vs Nõmme Kalju: match statistics
Paide vs Nõmme Kalju: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Paide played Nõmme Kalju in Meistriliiga (Estonia). The match was played on 19 April 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Paide: 4-1-0, 2.60 points/match. Nõmme Kalju: 4-1-0, 2.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Paide scores 2.17 and concedes 1.17 goals per match. Nõmme Kalju scores 1.83 and concedes 0.33. League average: 3.18 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Paide 67%, Nõmme Kalju 33%. Over 2.5: Paide 67%, Nõmme Kalju 33%. League level: BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 65%.
xG, shots and style
Nõmme Kalju has higher xG: 1.77 vs 1.61. Paide: 12.5 shots per match, Nõmme Kalju: 14.2.
Match halves
Paide: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 1.33. Nõmme Kalju: half-time lead 67%, second-half goals 1.00.
Goals by minute
Paide: 76-90+ (4 goals). Nõmme Kalju: 61-75 (4 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Meistriliiga: 3.18 goals per match, BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 65%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 4 previous H2H matches were available: 2-2-0. Average goals 2.50, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I predict a draw (X). Both teams show very similar form — in the last 5 matches each averages 2.6 points and has a run of 4 wins and 1 draw. Paide are dangerous offensively at home: 11 goals in the last 5 matches, averaging 2.0 goals per game, 59% possession and 15% shot conversion, while Nõmme Kalju have 10 goals in the last 5, averaging 1.33 on the road, but a higher xG (1.80 vs. the hosts' 1.63). Defensively the advantage lies with the visitors — Nõmme concedes 0.0 goals on average away and has 100% clean sheets, whereas Paide concedes 0.5 at home and has 50% clean sheets, so the hosts' offensive edge is balanced by the visitors' defensive solidity.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Paide at home averages 2.33 goals and has BTTS in 67% of matches, with home xG of 1.74, while Nõmme Kalju concedes 1.14 xG on average, indicating a realistic chance for the hosts to score. Nõmme Kalju generates 1.8 xG and in the last 5 matches averages 2.0 goals, with BTTS in 40% of fixtures, so the visitors can find the net as well. Paide averages 5.33 shots on target with an 18% conversion rate, and Nõmme Kalju 4.33 shots on target with a 9% conversion, which further supports goals from both sides. The league records 60% BTTS matches and an average of 3.27 goals per game; although seasonally Nõmme Kalju has 100% clean sheets and 0% BTTS, in the last 5 games this team concedes 0.4 goals per match. Considering the high xG on both sides (1.74 vs 1.8), Paide’s finishing and the league trend, I tip BTTS - Yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Paide scores an average of 2.33 goals at home with xG 1.74, while Nõmme Kalju scores 1.33 goals away with xG 1.80; the combined xG of 3.54 indicates a high number of created chances. Averaging attack and opponent defense yields a forecast of about 1.44 goals for Paide ((1.74+1.14)/2) and 1.69 for Kalju ((1.80+1.57)/2), totaling 3.13 expected goals. At this total of 3.13 I estimate the probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) at ~82% and Over 2.5 at ~61%, which aligns with form (Paide 2.2 goals in the last 5 matches, Kalju 2.0). Additionally, Paide converts 18% of shots versus Kalju’s 9% and has 100% of home matches this season with more than 1.5 goals, therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Nõmme Kalju led at the break in 3 of 3 matches (100%) and averages 1.0 goal by half-time while conceding none (0.0), so HT strongly favors the visitors. Over the full match the visitors have won all fixtures (100% wins) and have kept clean sheets in 100% of games, whereas Paide scores an average of 2.33 goals per match and concedes 0.67, highlighting the visitors’ superior defensive efficiency. However, Paide are strong after the break — they average 2.0 goals in the second half and in 100% of matches score at least once after half-time (AVG_2hg_home 2.0, over05_2hg_percentage_home 100%), which gives a moderate chance of a turnaround. xG figures are similar (1.74 for Paide vs 1.8 for Nõmme), but the visitors allow less xG to opponents (1.14 vs 1.57 for the hosts) and maintain a lower goals-conceded rate, which supports holding their lead. Considering Nõmme Kalju’s 100% leads at the break, 100% wins and 0.0 average goals conceded, the most likely scenario is visitors leading at half-time and winning the match (2/2).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Paide | Nõmme Kalju | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 44% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Paide is 19% better for: goals scored per match.
2.17 goals / match - Paide · 1.83 goals / match - Nõmme Kalju
Nõmme Kalju is 255% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.17 goals / match - Paide · 0.33 goals / match - Nõmme Kalju
Paide scores in 100% of matches (6 of 6 matches), while Nõmme Kalju keeps a clean sheet in 67% (4 of 6 matches).
Nõmme Kalju scores in 100% of matches (6 of 6 matches), while Paide keeps a clean sheet in 33% (2 of 6 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Paide
Over / Under - Nõmme Kalju
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Nõmme Kalju is 30% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.67 pts / match - Paide · 2.17 pts / match - Nõmme Kalju
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Paide - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 67%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.8 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Nõmme Kalju - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 67% of matches and wins 83%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 0% |
| Goal difference | +4 | +3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +5 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (4 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (4 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (1). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Paide
Nõmme Kalju
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Meistriliiga).
Teams vs league
| Paide | Liga | Nõmme Kalju | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.33 | 3.18 | ▼ 2.17 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 67% | 59% | ▼ 33% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 67% | 65% | ▼ 33% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 33% | 22% | ▲ 67% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 50% | 71% | ▲ 83% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 100% | 91% | ▼ 67% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (4): Paide 2 - 2 - 0 Nõmme Kalju. Average goals 2.50, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Paide vs Nõmme Kalju?
The Meistriliiga match finished Paide 1:0 Nõmme Kalju. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Paide and Nõmme Kalju?
In the last 4 head-to-head matches Paide won 2, Nõmme Kalju won 0 and 2 ended level. These games averaged 2.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Paide vs Nõmme Kalju?
Paide score 2.17 goals per game on average and Nõmme Kalju 1.83. The Meistriliiga average is 3.18 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 65% of games. Both teams score in 67% of Paide's matches and 33% of Nõmme Kalju's.
What form are Paide and Nõmme Kalju in?
Over the last 5 games Paide have a 4-1-0 record (2.60 points per game) and Nõmme Kalju 4-1-0 (2.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Paide vs Nõmme Kalju?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.