Paide vs Tammeka: match statistics
Paide vs Tammeka: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Paide played Tammeka in Meistriliiga (Estonia). The match was played on 1 May 2026. Final score: 0:1.
Current form
Paide: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Tammeka: 0-1-4, 0.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Paide scores 1.89 and concedes 1.22 goals per match. Tammeka scores 1.11 and concedes 1.89. League average: 3.32 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Paide 67%, Tammeka 56%. Over 2.5: Paide 67%, Tammeka 67%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 68%.
xG, shots and style
Tammeka has higher xG: 1.55 vs 1.52. Paide: 12.1 shots per match, Tammeka: 13.6.
Match halves
Paide: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 1.11. Tammeka: half-time lead 11%, second-half goals 0.67.
Goals by minute
Paide: 31-45+ (4 goals). Tammeka: 16-30 (2 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Meistriliiga: 3.32 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 68%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 5 previous H2H matches were available: 5-0-0. Average goals 2.80, BTTS 20%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Paide should win this match: the hosts sit 3rd and have won 75% of home games, scoring an average of 1.5 goals per game and keeping clean sheets in 50% of matches. In the last 5 matches Paide scored 11 goals and won 3 of 5, averaging 2 points per game in that period and an average home xG of 1.4. Tammeka are 9th, with just 2 wins this season, 2 goals in the last 5 matches and only 0.2 points per game in that span; away they concede 1.8 goals on average and have failed to score in 60% of their matches. The visitors record higher away xG (1.97) and more shots (avg. 18 shots and 6.4 on target), but their conversion rate is just 6% versus Paide’s 13% at home, which limits the visitors’ real threat.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I back BTTS - Yes. Paide have 75% of matches with both teams scoring this season and 80% in the last 5, with 0% clean sheets at home. Paide average 1.25 goals over the season and 2.2 in the last 5 matches, while conceding 2.0 on the season (1.2 in the last 5), which increases the likelihood of goals from both sides. Tammeka show 40% BTTS this season and 40% in the last 5, but their away attacking output is high: xG for 1.97, averaging 18 shots and 6.4 shots on target per game, despite a low conversion rate of 6% and just 0.4 goals in their last five outings. Considering the league average of 3.29 goals per game and the hosts' 65% overall home advantage, with Paide on 0% clean sheets and the visitors on only 20% clean sheets, I assess BTTS as more likely (70% vs 30%).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
After averaging offensive xG and opponent defensive xG, I obtain expected xG of 1.26 for Paide and 1.93 for Tammeka, totalling 3.19 goals. Assuming a Poisson distribution for total goals (λ=3.19), the probability of over 1.5 goals is ~83%, over 2.5 ~62%, and over 3.5 ~40%. These calculations are supported by form and seasonal stats: Paide at home has over 2.5 goals in 75% of matches, Tammeka away in 60%, and Paide scored 11 goals in the last 5 matches (avg 2.2). Additionally, Tammeka averages a high number of shots (18.0) with low conversion (6%), and in Paide’s home matches both teams scored in 75% of games, which together increases the chance of at least 2 goals in the match. Therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (side: over, line: 1.5).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Paide holds a significant form advantage: in the last 5 matches they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss (60% win rate in the last 5), whereas Tammeka has not won any of their last five (0% wins), which favors the home side. At half-time Paide led in 60% of their last 5 fixtures and averaged 1.2 goals by the break, while Tammeka failed to score by half-time in those five matches (0.0), so there is a strong signal pointing to Paide leading after 45 minutes. Technically Tammeka generate more chances (xG 1.97 versus Paide’s 1.01, on average 18 shots versus 8 and 6.4 shots on target versus 3.5), but their conversion is low (6% versus Paide’s 16%), meaning the higher xG does not necessarily translate into goals for the visitors. Additionally, Paide conceded only 0.2 goals on average by half-time in their last 5 matches, while Tammeka conceded 1.4 goals by the break in those five games, which reinforces the scenario of the home side leading and holding the result (hence the 1/1 selection).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Paide | Tammeka | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 39% | 38% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.40 | 0.22 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Paide is 900% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - Paide · 0.2 pts / match - Tammeka
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Paide is 70% better for: goals scored per match.
1.89 goals / match - Paide · 1.11 goals / match - Tammeka
Paide is 55% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.22 goals / match - Paide · 1.89 goals / match - Tammeka
Paide scores in 100% of matches (9 of 9 matches), while Tammeka keeps a clean sheet in 11% (1 of 9 matches).
Tammeka scores in 56% of matches (5 of 9 matches), while Paide keeps a clean sheet in 33% (3 of 9 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Paide
Over / Under - Tammeka
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Paide is 149% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.67 pts / match - Paide · 0.67 pts / match - Tammeka
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Paide - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 56%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.8 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Tammeka - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 11% of matches and wins 22%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 20% |
| No goal | 20% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +5 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 40% |
| No goal | 100% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -7 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (4 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (2 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Paide
Tammeka
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Meistriliiga).
Teams vs league
| Paide | Liga | Tammeka | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 3.11 | 3.32 | ▼ 3.00 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 67% | 55% | • 56% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 67% | 68% | • 67% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 33% | 23% | ▼ 11% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 56% | 74% | ▲ 78% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 100% | 91% | ▼ 67% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (5): Paide 5 - 0 - 0 Tammeka. Average goals 2.80, both teams scored in 20% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Paide vs Tammeka?
The Meistriliiga match finished Paide 0:1 Tammeka. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Paide and Tammeka?
In the last 5 head-to-head matches Paide won 5, Tammeka won 0 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.80 goals, with both teams scoring in 20% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Paide vs Tammeka?
Paide score 1.89 goals per game on average and Tammeka 1.11. The Meistriliiga average is 3.32 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 68% of games. Both teams score in 67% of Paide's matches and 56% of Tammeka's.
What form are Paide and Tammeka in?
Over the last 5 games Paide have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Tammeka 0-1-4 (0.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Paide vs Tammeka?
The statistical background for Paide vs Tammeka — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.