Pakhtakor vs Termez Surkhon: match statistics

Pakhtakor sit 2nd, while Termez Surkhon are only 14th, and the hosts’ overall season record stands at 11 wins, 5 draws and just 1 defeat. The hosts are unbeaten in their last five matches, earning 11 points and conceding only 3 goals, whereas the visitors have lost 4 of their last 5 games, scoring just 3 goals during that period. At home, Pakhtakor average 2 goals per match with an xG of 1.64, record 5.33 shots on target and enjoy 61% possession. Termez Surkhon average 1 goal away from home, post an xG of 1.23 and fail to score in 25% of their matches; combined with conceding an average of 1.63 goals per game, this points to a clear home advantage. The visitors may still pose a threat, as Pakhtakor keep a clean sheet in only 11% of their home matches, but the difference in current form and the quality of chances created favors a home win.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is Termezu Surkhonu’s current scoring form: they have scored just 3 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.6 per game, with both teams scoring in only 40% of those matches. Pakhtakor are in good defensive form, conceding just 3 goals over the same period, an average of 0.6 per match. The visitors have failed to score in 25% of their matches this season, while their average of 1.0 goal per game is below the league average of 2.66 total goals per match. On the other hand, Termezu’s xG from their last five matches stands at 1.46, so an away goal remains a realistic possibility, although their actual attacking output clearly does not support this potential. Pakhtakor should have a chance to score against a defence that Termez concede an average of 1.63 goals against, but it is more likely that at least one team—most notably the visitors—will fail to score.

Pakhtakor are in clearly better form: they have scored 8 goals in their last five matches, averaging 1.6 per game, while conceding just 3. Over the same period, Termez Surkhon have scored only 3 goals, an average of 0.6, while conceding 7, limiting their offensive projection to around 0.9 goals. On a season-long basis, matches involving both teams have finished Under 3.5 goals in 78% and 75% of cases, respectively, and neither side has scored more than 3 goals in a single match. The combined expected xG from their last five appearances is relatively high—1.43 for the home side and 1.46 for the visitors—but Termez’s weaker finishing and Pakhtakor’s solid defense point to a game ending with 1-3 goals. The strongest signal is therefore Under 3.5, supported by a projected total of 2.40 goals and a low 23% probability of four or more goals.

Pakhtakor are clearly stronger in terms of current form: they have collected 11 points from their last five matches, winning three and avoiding defeat, while Termez Surkhon have lost four of their last five games and earned only three points. The hosts were leading at the break in 60% of their last five matches, scoring an average of 1.0 goal before half-time and conceding none, whereas the visitors scored just 0.2 goals in the first halves over the same period. Long-term data also support Pakhtakor’s advantage after the break, as Termez were trailing at half-time in 63% of their away matches and never held the lead. Pakhtakor have also improved their scoring efficiency to 1.6 goals per game across their last five appearances, conceding just 0.6, while their opponents average 0.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. The most logical scenario, therefore, is for the hosts to lead at the break and maintain their victory until the final whistle.