Paksi SE vs Kazincbarcika: match statistics
Paksi SE vs Kazincbarcika: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Paksi SE played Kazincbarcika in NB I (Hungary). The match was played on 4 April 2026. Final score: 5:1.
Current form
Paksi SE: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Kazincbarcika: 1-0-4, 0.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Paksi SE scores 1.81 and concedes 1.41 goals per match. Kazincbarcika scores 0.96 and concedes 2.04. League average: 2.96 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Paksi SE 70%, Kazincbarcika 52%. Over 2.5: Paksi SE 63%, Kazincbarcika 70%. League level: BTTS 62%, Over 2.5 58%.
xG, shots and style
Paksi SE has higher xG: 2.01 vs 1.09. Paksi SE: 16.2 shots per match, Kazincbarcika: 9.2.
Match halves
Paksi SE: half-time lead 30%, second-half goals 1.07. Kazincbarcika: half-time lead 19%, second-half goals 0.37.
Goals by minute
Paksi SE: 76-90+ (16 goals). Kazincbarcika: 31-45+ (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
NB I: 2.96 goals per match, BTTS 62%, Over 2.5 58%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 2-0-0. Average goals 2.50, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
The favorites in this match are the hosts, Paksi SE, who have scored 49 goals this season and average 2.15 goals per home game (xG 2.29), while Kazincbarcika have 26 goals this season and score an average of 1.15 goals away with xG 1.02. The hosts create significantly more opportunities — averaging 18.62 shots and 7.23 shots on target per home match versus the visitors’ 8.62 shots and 2.85 on target away — translating into clearly superior chance quality. Defensively the visitors are prone to mistakes: Kazincbarcika have conceded 55 goals this season and 2.0 goals on average away (xG against 2.28), whereas Paksi concede 1.85 at home on average (xG against 1.45). Recent form also favors the hosts — Paksi have scored 7 goals in their last 5 matches with a record of 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses (1.0 point per match), while Kazincbarcika scored 6 and conceded 13 in their last five, with only 1 win and 4 losses (0.6 points per match). Considering league positions (5th vs 12th), superior win tally (11 vs 5) and clear advantages in xG (2.29 vs 1.02) and shots on target (7.23 vs 2.85), I predict a home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams have seasonal BTTS rates of 50% (Paksi) and 54% (Kazincbarcika), while the league BTTS rate is even higher at 62%, indicating matches in this league frequently end with goals from both sides. Both teams concede heavily: seasonal averages conceded are 2.07 for the home side and 2.00 for the away side, and in the last 5 matches the away team concedes 2.6 goals per game on average (13 conceded), which increases the likelihood of Goal/Goal. The home team’s last 5 xG is 1.71 with an average of 1.4 goals scored per match, while the away team has xG 0.97 and scores 1.2 goals per match, so both teams create scoring opportunities. Additionally, the clean sheet expected rate is low (7% for the home side and 15% for the away side), and matches over 2.5 goals occur in 57% for Paksi and 85% for Kazincbarcika; over2.5 with BTTS occurs for the home team in 43% and for the away team in 54%, which reinforces the BTTS signal. Based on this, I assess BTTS - Yes probability at 72% and No at 28%, therefore I recommend: yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Season-long statistics clearly indicate a goals match: Over 1.5 occurred for Paksi in 86% of games and for Kazincbarcika in 85% of games, and both teams have 100% of matches with at least one goal (Over 0.5 = 100%). Average xG are 1.15 for the home side and 1.02 for the visitors, while xG against are 1.82 (Paksi) and 2.28 (Kazincbarcika); averaging these pairs yields expected 1.72 goals for the home team and 1.42 for the away team, i.e. roughly 3.14 goals total. Season Over 2.5 percentages are 57% (Paksi) and 85% (Kazincbarcika), implying a combined probability for Over 2.5 around 71%, whereas Over 3.5 is less likely (43% vs 38% → approx. 41%). Additionally, low clean sheet rates (7% Paksi, 15% Kazincbarcika) and average goals conceded of 2.07 and 2.00 support a goals prediction; therefore I recommend the Over side and select Over 1.5 as the primary play.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Half-time statistics suggest a high chance of a draw: the home side had a draw at the break in 36% of matches, and the visitors in 54%, i.e. on average around a 45% probability of an HT draw. Although Paks has a higher xG (1.15 vs 1.02 for Kazincbarcika), the home team concedes on average 2.07 goals per match compared to 2.00 for the visitors and has a lower win rate (14% vs 23%), so overall the away side is stronger. A strong signal in favor of a Kazincbarcika victory is the second half: the visitors score on average 0.69 goals after the break and register over 0.5 goals in 2H in 100% of matches, whereas Paks scores only 0.07 goals after the break on average. Additionally, the hosts rarely keep a clean sheet at half-time (21%), and their home matches have at least one goal by the break in 93% of cases, which suggests the HT draw is most likely to be with goals (e.g. 1-1). On this basis the strongest scenario is a half-time draw and an away win (X/2).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Paksi SE | Kazincbarcika | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 39% | 35% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Paksi SE is 67% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Paksi SE · 0.6 pts / match - Kazincbarcika
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Paksi SE is 89% better for: goals scored per match.
1.81 goals / match - Paksi SE · 0.96 goals / match - Kazincbarcika
Paksi SE is 45% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.41 goals / match - Paksi SE · 2.04 goals / match - Kazincbarcika
Paksi SE scores in 81% of matches (22 of 27 matches), while Kazincbarcika keeps a clean sheet in 11% (3 of 27 matches).
Kazincbarcika scores in 63% of matches (17 of 27 matches), while Paksi SE keeps a clean sheet in 19% (5 of 27 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Paksi SE
Over / Under - Kazincbarcika
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Paksi SE is 48% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.48 pts / match - Paksi SE · 1 pts / match - Kazincbarcika
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Paksi SE - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 30% of matches and wins 41%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Kazincbarcika - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 19% of matches and wins 19%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (16 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): +9 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (6 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (19). Late-goal balance (76-90): -18 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Paksi SE
Kazincbarcika
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (NB I).
Teams vs league
| Paksi SE | Liga | Kazincbarcika | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.22 | 2.96 | • 3.00 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 70% | 62% | ▼ 52% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 63% | 58% | ▲ 70% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 19% | 21% | ▼ 11% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 59% | 68% | ▲ 70% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 93% | 88% | ▼ 85% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Paksi SE 2 - 0 - 0 Kazincbarcika. Average goals 2.50, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Paksi SE vs Kazincbarcika?
The NB I match finished Paksi SE 5:1 Kazincbarcika. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Paksi SE and Kazincbarcika?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Paksi SE won 2, Kazincbarcika won 0 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Paksi SE vs Kazincbarcika?
Paksi SE score 1.81 goals per game on average and Kazincbarcika 0.96. The NB I average is 2.96 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 58% of games. Both teams score in 70% of Paksi SE's matches and 52% of Kazincbarcika's.
What form are Paksi SE and Kazincbarcika in?
Over the last 5 games Paksi SE have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Kazincbarcika 1-0-4 (0.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Paksi SE vs Kazincbarcika?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.