Palermo vs Avellino: match statistics
Palermo vs Avellino: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Palermo played Avellino in Serie B (Italy). The match was played on 5 April 2026. Final score: 2:0.
Current form
Palermo: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Avellino: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Palermo scores 1.63 and concedes 0.84 goals per match. Avellino scores 1.16 and concedes 1.59. League average: 2.56 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Palermo 41%, Avellino 56%. Over 2.5: Palermo 50%, Avellino 53%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 50%.
xG, shots and style
Palermo has higher xG: 1.55 vs 1.12. Palermo: 14.3 shots per match, Avellino: 9.6.
Match halves
Palermo: half-time lead 50%, second-half goals 0.94. Avellino: half-time lead 28%, second-half goals 0.56.
Goals by minute
Palermo: 46-60 (12 goals). Avellino: 31-45+ (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Serie B: 2.56 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 50%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Palermo at home scores on average 1.94 goals and concedes only 0.63 goals per match, with 63% of matches kept clean, giving them a clear defensive edge at home. Avellino away scores on average 0.94 goals and concedes 1.69 goals per match, has only 6% clean sheets and fails to score in 38% of fixtures, highlighting offensive and defensive issues on the road. Palermo generates more high-quality chances (average xG at home 1.67 vs Avellino away xG 0.96) and registers more shots on target (5.38 vs 2.44), with higher shot conversion (13% vs 11%). In the last 5 matches both teams have 3 wins, but Palermo averages 2.0 points per game in that period versus Avellino’s 1.8, and the table gap (4th vs 10th) together with home goal difference +21 versus away -12 favor the hosts. Based on this, I assess that the best scenario is a Palermo victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams have a season BTTS rate of 56% (Palermo 56%, Avellino 56%), and the league average BTTS is 55%, giving a baseline signal for BTTS - Yes around 55–56%. Palermo generates 1.28 xG per match and scores 1.38 goals on average, while Avellino concedes 1.72 xG and concedes 1.69 goals per match on average this season, so Palermo has realistic chances to score against Avellino’s weak defense. Avellino, however, has a low season scoring average of 0.94 and only 2.44 shots on target per match, but in the last 5 games they averaged 1.4 goals and had 60% BTTS, demonstrating they can find the net. Palermo at home averages 10.88 shots and 4.13 on target with a 13% conversion rate, and Avellino have conceded 51 goals this season, which increases the likelihood of goals from both sides. Considering both teams’ season 56% BTTS, the league average 55%, and Avellino’s weak defense (1.72 xG conceded and 1.69 goals conceded on average), I favor BTTS - Yes with a 65% probability versus 35% for No.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG-based model forecasts total expected goals of 2.75: Palermo ~1.50 (attacking xG 1.28 vs Avellino conceded xG 1.72) and Avellino ~1.25 (attacking xG 0.96 vs Palermo conceded xG 1.54). Palermo averages 10.88 shots and 4.13 on target with a conversion rate of 13%, while Avellino averages 8.38 shots and 2.44 on target with an 11% conversion rate, favoring the hosts’ ability to create chances. Avellino have conceded 51 goals this season (1.69 per game) and keep a clean sheet in only 6% of matches, whereas Palermo have scored 52 goals and keep clean sheets in 25% of matches; those factors collectively support goals. Season-long Over 1.5 occurs in 75% of Palermo’s matches and 81% of Avellino’s matches, and a Poisson simulation with lambda=2.75 yields about a 76% probability for Over 1.5 and 52% for Over 2.5. Therefore the strongest signal is to back the over line at 1.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Palermo appears to be the favorite: they have won 44% of matches this season and score an average of 1.38 goals per game versus 0.94 for Avellino, with xG 1.28 vs 0.96 for the visitors. The hosts have led at the break in 7 matches (44%), while Avellino only in 2 (13%), and average first-half goals are 0.63 for Palermo vs 0.56 for Avellino, which supports a home advantage already by halftime. Palermo averages 4.13 shots on target versus 2.44 for Avellino and has a higher conversion rate (13% vs 11%), increasing the likelihood of holding a lead and turning it into a win. There is, however, a risk of a turnaround, since in the second half the hosts score on average 0.75 and concede 1.06 goals, and both teams record BTTS in 56% of matches; nonetheless the xG and SOT superiority and more frequent leads at the break indicate that the 1/1 scenario (Palermo leading at half-time and winning) is the strongest signal.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Palermo | Avellino | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 31% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Palermo is 11% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - Palermo · 1.8 pts / match - Avellino
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Palermo is 41% better for: goals scored per match.
1.63 goals / match - Palermo · 1.16 goals / match - Avellino
Palermo is 89% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.84 goals / match - Palermo · 1.59 goals / match - Avellino
Palermo scores in 78% of matches (25 of 32 matches), while Avellino keeps a clean sheet in 16% (5 of 32 matches).
Avellino scores in 66% of matches (21 of 32 matches), while Palermo keeps a clean sheet in 47% (15 of 32 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Palermo
Over / Under - Avellino
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Palermo is 31% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.75 pts / match - Palermo · 1.34 pts / match - Avellino
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Palermo - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 50% of matches and wins 53%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Avellino - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 28% of matches and wins 31%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (12 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (9 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (14). Late-goal balance (76-90): -8 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Palermo
Avellino
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie B).
Teams vs league
| Palermo | Liga | Avellino | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.47 | 2.56 | ▲ 2.75 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 41% | 55% | • 56% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 50% | 50% | ▲ 53% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 47% | 27% | ▼ 16% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 78% | 72% | ▼ 69% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 72% | 76% | ▼ 72% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Palermo 0 - 1 - 0 Avellino. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Palermo vs Avellino?
The Serie B match finished Palermo 2:0 Avellino. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Palermo vs Avellino?
Palermo score 1.63 goals per game on average and Avellino 1.16. The Serie B average is 2.56 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 50% of games. Both teams score in 41% of Palermo's matches and 56% of Avellino's.
What form are Palermo and Avellino in?
Over the last 5 games Palermo have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Avellino 3-0-2 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Palermo vs Avellino?
The statistical background for Palermo vs Avellino — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.