Palestino vs La Serena: match statistics
Palestino vs La Serena: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Palestino played La Serena in Primera División (Chile). The match was played on 16 May 2026. Final score: 5:1.
Current form
Palestino: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. La Serena: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Palestino scores 1.27 and concedes 1.64 goals per match. La Serena scores 1.18 and concedes 1.27. League average: 2.64 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Palestino 55%, La Serena 36%. Over 2.5: Palestino 45%, La Serena 45%. League level: BTTS 45%, Over 2.5 50%.
xG, shots and style
Palestino has higher xG: 1.39 vs 1.21. Palestino: 14.0 shots per match, La Serena: 11.0.
Match halves
Palestino: half-time lead 36%, second-half goals 0.73. La Serena: half-time lead 45%, second-half goals 0.27.
Goals by minute
Palestino: 61-75 (4 goals). La Serena: 31-45+ (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Primera División: 2.64 goals per match, BTTS 45%, Over 2.5 50%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 2-0-0. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Palestino has a clear advantage in home metrics: at home they average 1.67 goals per match, have xG 1.51 and 5.17 shots on target per game, whereas La Serena away averages 1.2 goals, xG 1.18 and 3.4 shots on target. Defensively the hosts also perform better — Palestino concedes 1.0 goal on average in home matches with xG against 0.96 and have conceded 4 goals in the last 5 matches, while La Serena concedes 2.0 goals away and has allowed as many as 9 goals in their last five. Home form is further supported by efficiency and history: Palestino has a 50% win rate in home matches and a +4 home goal difference, while La Serena has only a 20% away win rate and a -4 goal difference. It is worth noting, however, that Palestino’s recent five-match form is weaker on points — only 0.8 points and just 1 goal scored across those five matches, whereas La Serena scored 6 goals in their last 5 and averages 1.2 points over that period. Considering the priority of home statistics (xG, shots on target, lower GA) and La Serena’s poor defensive away record, I predict a Palestino win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Palestino has a seasonal BTTS 33% and keeps a clean sheet in 50% of home matches, while La Serena has BTTS 40% and only 20% of away games without conceding. In the last 5 matches Palestino records 0% BTTS and scores 0.2 goals per game on average, while La Serena scored 6 goals in the last 5 (1.2 avg) with 40% BTTS in that period. From an xG perspective Palestino generates 1.23 xG at home with xG against 1.24, but seasonally concedes only 0.67 goals per game, whereas La Serena has xG against 1.52 and concedes 2.0 goals per game seasonally, indicating greater defensive vulnerability. The league has an overall BTTS rate of 45% and a high clean sheet percentage of 60%, which strengthens the case against Goal/Goal. Considering Palestino’s 50% home clean sheets, 0% BTTS in the last 5 and Palestino’s seasonal BTTS 33%, the strongest data signal is a No Goal (BTTS - No).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG-based model projects a total of 2.59 expected goals: Palestino 1.38 xG (attack xG 1.23 vs opponent defense xG 1.52) and La Serena 1.21 xG (attack xG 1.18 vs Palestino defense xG 1.24), which in a Poisson distribution yields about a 73% probability of Over 1.5 goals. Defensive differences are significant — La Serena concedes on average 2.0 goals per match, while Palestino at home concedes only 0.67 and has 50% clean sheets; this raises the likelihood of away goals, although the percentage of matches with Both Teams to Score is only 33% for Palestino and 40% for La Serena. Seasonal Over 2.5 rates are 33% for Palestino and 60% for La Serena, so Over 2.5 in the model sits on the edge (≈48% probability), and Over 3.5 remains unlikely (~26%). Considering the expected 2.59 goals, the defensive disparity and seasonal percentages, the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (≈73%), hence the recommendation to play the Over at line 1.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Palestino leads at the break in 50% of matches (3 of 6) and scores an average of 1.0 goals by half-time while conceding only 0.33, giving them a clear advantage in the first half. La Serena concedes an average of 2.0 goals per match and allows 1.52 xG against, whereas Palestino concedes 1.24 xG and has an xG of 1.23, indicating a weaker away defense. After the break La Serena concedes an average of 1.6 goals compared to just 0.33 for Palestino, so the hosts are statistically less prone to surrendering a lead. Additionally, Palestino registers more shots on target (4.33 vs 3.4) and has 8 goals by half-time versus 6 for La Serena; therefore the strongest signal is Palestino leading at half-time and winning by full-time (HT/FT 1/1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Palestino | La Serena | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Palestino is 8% better for: goals scored per match.
1.27 goals / match - Palestino · 1.18 goals / match - La Serena
La Serena is 29% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.64 goals / match - Palestino · 1.27 goals / match - La Serena
Palestino scores in 73% of matches (8 of 11 matches), while La Serena keeps a clean sheet in 36% (4 of 11 matches).
La Serena scores in 64% of matches (7 of 11 matches), while Palestino keeps a clean sheet in 27% (3 of 11 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Palestino
Over / Under - La Serena
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
La Serena is 26% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.45 pts / match - Palestino · 1.82 pts / match - La Serena
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Palestino - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 36% of matches and wins 36%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
La Serena - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 45% of matches and wins 27%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.6 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -5 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (4 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (6 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Palestino
La Serena
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Primera División).
Teams vs league
| Palestino | Liga | La Serena | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.91 | 2.64 | ▼ 2.45 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 55% | 45% | ▼ 36% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 45% | 50% | ▼ 45% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 27% | 30% | ▲ 36% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 73% | 70% | ▼ 64% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 73% | 76% | ▼ 64% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Palestino 2 - 0 - 0 La Serena. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Palestino vs La Serena?
The Primera División match finished Palestino 5:1 La Serena. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Palestino and La Serena?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Palestino won 2, La Serena won 0 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Palestino vs La Serena?
Palestino score 1.27 goals per game on average and La Serena 1.18. The Primera División average is 2.64 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 50% of games. Both teams score in 55% of Palestino's matches and 36% of La Serena's.
What form are Palestino and La Serena in?
Over the last 5 games Palestino have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and La Serena 1-3-1 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Palestino vs La Serena?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.