Palmeiras vs Santos: match statistics
Palmeiras vs Santos: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Palmeiras played Santos in Serie A (Brazil). The match was played on 2 May 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Palmeiras: 4-1-0, 2.60 points/match. Santos: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Palmeiras scores 1.77 and concedes 0.77 goals per match. Santos scores 1.38 and concedes 1.62. League average: 2.61 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Palmeiras 62%, Santos 77%. Over 2.5: Palmeiras 62%, Santos 62%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 48%.
xG, shots and style
Palmeiras has higher xG: 1.35 vs 1.29. Palmeiras: 11.9 shots per match, Santos: 12.2.
Match halves
Palmeiras: half-time lead 77%, second-half goals 0.62. Santos: half-time lead 23%, second-half goals 0.69.
Goals by minute
Palmeiras: 16-30 (6 goals). Santos: 16-30 (4 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Serie A: 2.61 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 48%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-1. Average goals 1.50, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Palmeiras are the clear favorites: league leaders (position 1) have 10 wins this season and a perfect home record (Win% 100, Loss% 0), while Santos sit 16th with only 3 wins this season. At home the hosts pose greater threat — they score 2.17 goals per game at home with 5 shots on target and a 15% conversion rate, whereas Santos average 1.33 goals away with 3.33 shots on target and 10% conversion. Defense also favors Palmeiras: hosts concede 0.67 goals at home versus 2.17 conceded by Santos on the road, and opponents’ xG against Santos is 1.56 vs xG against Palmeiras 1.28. Form trends confirm the advantage — Palmeiras have 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 (2.6 points per game), while Santos have 0 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss (0.8 points per game) and have not won away (Win% away 0%). Considering 0% of home matches without a goal for Palmeiras versus 17% FTS for Santos and the superiority in xG, concessions and shot efficiency, I back the home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams display strong seasonal BTTS indicators: Palmeiras 71% and Santos 83%, both well above the league average of 55%, indicating a high probability of Goal/Goal. Goal and xG metrics corroborate this signal: Palmeiras scores 1.43 goals with xG 1.19 per game, while Santos concedes 2.17 goals with xG against 1.56; conversely Santos generates xG 1.40 versus Palmeiras xG against 1.28, so both sides create chances. Santos away averages 14.0 shots and 3.33 on target with a 10% conversion rate, while Palmeiras posts 10.57 shots and 3.0 on target with a 14% conversion, increasing the likelihood of goals from both teams. Although Palmeiras conceded only 0.4 goals in the last 5 matches and had BTTS in 40% of those fixtures plus 29% clean sheets at home, given the seasonal 71%/83% BTTS and Santos having 83% of matches over 2.5, the strongest signal is BTTS - Yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I recommend Over 1.5 as the primary option: 86% of Palmeiras matches and 83% of Santos matches this season finished over 1.5 goals, giving roughly an 85% probability for Over 1.5. xG analysis: 1.19 xG for Palmeiras and 1.56 xG against (Santos) yield an expected 1.38 goals for the home side, while 1.40 xG for Santos and 1.28 xG against Palmeiras yield 1.34 expected goals for the away side, totaling 2.72 expected goals. Additionally both teams have high BTTS rates: 71% (Palmeiras) and 83% (Santos), and the league average is 2.61 goals per match, which further supports the at least two-goal scenario. Over 2.5 has moderate backing (43% for the home side vs 83% for the away side, average ~63%), but considering Palmeiras’ form in the last 5 matches (scoring 1.6 on average and conceding only 0.4) I lower the probability of >2.5 to around 60%; Over 3.5 is less certain (14% home vs 67% away -> approx. 40%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
I predict 1/1 as the most likely scenario: Palmeiras led at the break in 4 of their last 5 matches (80%) and won 4 of 5 (80%), averaging 1.6 goals scored and 0.4 conceded in those five games. Santos have not won any of their last 5 matches (0% wins) and concede an average of 2.17 goals per game this season; despite a higher xG (1.40 vs. Palmeiras 1.19) they have a lower shot conversion rate (10% vs. 14%). Season-to-date Palmeiras are level at half-time in 71% of matches, so the X/1 variant (draw at half-time, home win at full-time) is the second logical option; however, Palmeiras’ last five first halves show an average of 1.2 goals scored and 0.2 conceded, which supports them leading at the break. As a result I give the largest weight to 1/1, a significant weight to X/1 as an alternative, and consider scenarios with a Santos win unlikely given their zero wins in the last five matches and high average goals conceded of 2.17.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Palmeiras | Santos | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 39% | 26% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.38 | 0.44 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Palmeiras is 86% better for: last-5 form.
2.6 pts / match - Palmeiras · 1.4 pts / match - Santos
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Palmeiras is 28% better for: goals scored per match.
1.77 goals / match - Palmeiras · 1.38 goals / match - Santos
Palmeiras is 110% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.77 goals / match - Palmeiras · 1.62 goals / match - Santos
Palmeiras scores in 92% of matches (12 of 13 matches), while Santos keeps a clean sheet in 23% (3 of 13 matches).
Santos scores in 92% of matches (12 of 13 matches), while Palmeiras keeps a clean sheet in 38% (5 of 13 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Palmeiras
Over / Under - Santos
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Palmeiras is 84% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
2.54 pts / match - Palmeiras · 1.38 pts / match - Santos
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Palmeiras - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 77% of matches and wins 77%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Santos - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 23% of matches and wins 23%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.7 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 60% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +4 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 1.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +3 | -3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (6 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (4 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Palmeiras
Santos
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie A).
Teams vs league
| Palmeiras | Liga | Santos | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.54 | 2.61 | ▲ 3.00 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 62% | 55% | ▲ 77% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 62% | 48% | ▲ 62% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 38% | 25% | ▼ 23% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 92% | 74% | ▼ 69% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 54% | 75% | ▲ 85% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Palmeiras 1 - 0 - 1 Santos. Average goals 1.50, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Palmeiras vs Santos?
The Serie A match finished Palmeiras 1:1 Santos. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Santos?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Palmeiras won 1, Santos won 1 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 1.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Palmeiras vs Santos?
Palmeiras score 1.77 goals per game on average and Santos 1.38. The Serie A average is 2.61 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 48% of games. Both teams score in 62% of Palmeiras's matches and 77% of Santos's.
What form are Palmeiras and Santos in?
Over the last 5 games Palmeiras have a 4-1-0 record (2.60 points per game) and Santos 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Palmeiras vs Santos?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Palmeiras vs Santos: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.