Panathinaikos vs AEK Athens: match statistics
Panathinaikos vs AEK Athens: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Panathinaikos played AEK Athens in Super League (Greece). The match was played on 3 May 2026. Final score: 0:0.
Current form
Panathinaikos: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. AEK Athens: 4-1-0, 2.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Panathinaikos scores 1.57 and concedes 1.00 goals per match. AEK Athens scores 1.89 and concedes 0.61. League average: 2.55 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Panathinaikos 50%, AEK Athens 32%. Over 2.5: Panathinaikos 50%, AEK Athens 43%. League level: BTTS 46%, Over 2.5 48%.
xG, shots and style
AEK Athens has higher xG: 1.70 vs 1.56. Panathinaikos: 13.0 shots per match, AEK Athens: 15.1.
Match halves
Panathinaikos: half-time lead 50%, second-half goals 0.75. AEK Athens: half-time lead 43%, second-half goals 1.18.
Goals by minute
Panathinaikos: 0-15 (11 goals). AEK Athens: 61-75 (12 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Super League: 2.55 goals per match, BTTS 46%, Over 2.5 48%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-2. Average goals 4.50, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
An away win (AEK) appears most likely: AEK have won 4 of their last 5 matches scoring 10 goals, while Panathinaikos have just 1 win and 2 goals in the same period. Over the season AEK have recorded 20 wins and 53 goals, versus Panathinaikos’ 14 wins and 44 goals, clearly indicating the visitors’ offensive edge. Hosts create slightly more chances at home (avg. 14.21 shots, 5.29 on target and xG 1.71), while AEK away average 13.64 shots, 4.21 on target and xG 1.55; however AEK have been markedly more clinical in recent matches. Defensively both teams concede on average 0.86 goals per game, but AEK have a higher clean sheet rate (50% vs 36%) and a lower away loss rate (7% vs 14%), providing greater stability. Considering AEK’s 2.4 points per game in the last 5 matches versus Panathinaikos’ 1.0, and the seasonal win advantage 20–14, I propose the probability distribution: 55% AEK win, 25% home win, 20% draw.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Panathinaikos at home averages 2.0 goals scored and concedes 0.36; they have 71% clean sheets and only 21% home matches with BTTS, which strongly argues against both teams scoring. AEK away averages 1.79 goals for and 0.86 conceded; their seasonal BTTS is 43%, xG is 1.55, while Panathinaikos allows opponents 0.92 xG per match, so AEK has offensive potential but will face a disciplined defense. In the last 5 matches Panathinaikos scored only 2 goals (0.4 per game) and conceded 7 (1.4 per game), while AEK scored 10 (2.0 per game) and conceded 4 (0.8 per game), showing AEK’s attacking form but a clear drop in the hosts’ efficiency. Considering Panathinaikos’ 71% clean sheets, low home BTTS of 21% and the league average of 2.51 goals with 64% clean sheets, I assign a higher probability to No Goal 68% vs BTTS - Yes 32%.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG-based model (Panathinaikos 1.84, AEK 1.55) and xG against (Panathinaikos 0.92, AEK 1.09) yields an expected 1.47 goals for the home side and 1.23 for the visitors, totaling 2.70 goals. With a mean of 2.70 the Poisson distribution indicates roughly a 75% probability of Over 1.5 goals, about 51% for Over 2.5 and around 29% for Over 3.5. Seasonally both teams have only 43% of matches above 2.5 goals, but Panathinaikos averages 2.0 goals at home and AEK has scored 10 goals in the last 5 matches (2.0 per game), which lifts the goal probability. At the same time Panathinaikos records 71% clean sheets at home and only 21% of matches see Both Teams To Score, which limits the risk of a very high-scoring affair; therefore the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5, while Over 2.5 shows only a moderate edge.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Panathinaikos led at half-time in 57% of their home matches and average 0.79 goals scored and 0.14 conceded by the break (leadingAtHTPercentage_home = 57%, scoredAVGHT_home 0.79, concededAVGHT_home 0.14), which strongly supports a lead at the break. The hosts win 86% of home games (winPercentage_home = 86%), therefore the 1/1 scenario was given the highest weight of 52% as the most likely outcome. Additionally, the hosts’ xG of 1.84 versus the visitors’ 1.55 and an average of 5.43 shots on target vs 4.21 confirm offensive superiority, while a seasonal clean sheet at half-time of 86% (seasonCSPercentageHT_home = 86%) reduces the likelihood of a quick equalizer. However, AEK are in good form over the last five matches (80% wins and 80% leads at half-time in the last five), so I also assigned a significant 28% to the X/1 scenario (draw at half-time, hosts win) as protection against a late turnaround. The remaining 20% is distributed among rare draws and sporadic turnarounds (e.g. 1/X 4%, 2/1 6%, 2/2 6%, 2/X 2%, 1/2 1%, X/X 1%, X/2 0%), reflecting the season-long 7% home defeats and 7% home draws.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Panathinaikos | AEK Athens | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 32% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
AEK Athens is 63% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / match - Panathinaikos · 2.6 pts / match - AEK Athens
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
AEK Athens is 20% better for: goals scored per match.
1.57 goals / match - Panathinaikos · 1.89 goals / match - AEK Athens
AEK Athens is 64% better for: goals conceded per match.
1 goals / match - Panathinaikos · 0.61 goals / match - AEK Athens
Panathinaikos scores in 75% of matches (21 of 28 matches), while AEK Athens keeps a clean sheet in 61% (17 of 28 matches).
AEK Athens scores in 89% of matches (25 of 28 matches), while Panathinaikos keeps a clean sheet in 36% (10 of 28 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Panathinaikos
Over / Under - AEK Athens
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Panathinaikos is 7% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.79 pts / match - Panathinaikos · 1.68 pts / match - AEK Athens
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Panathinaikos - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 50% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
AEK Athens - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 43% of matches and wins 71%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +2 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +5 | +3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (11 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (12 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +10 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Panathinaikos
AEK Athens
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Super League).
Teams vs league
| Panathinaikos | Liga | AEK Athens | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.57 | 2.55 | • 2.50 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 50% | 46% | ▼ 32% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 50% | 48% | ▼ 43% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 36% | 32% | ▲ 61% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 79% | 71% | ▼ 68% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 71% | 74% | ▼ 71% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Panathinaikos 0 - 0 - 2 AEK Athens. Average goals 4.50, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Panathinaikos vs AEK Athens?
The Super League match finished Panathinaikos 0:0 AEK Athens. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and AEK Athens?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Panathinaikos won 0, AEK Athens won 2 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 4.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Panathinaikos vs AEK Athens?
Panathinaikos score 1.57 goals per game on average and AEK Athens 1.89. The Super League average is 2.55 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 48% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Panathinaikos's matches and 32% of AEK Athens's.
What form are Panathinaikos and AEK Athens in?
Over the last 5 games Panathinaikos have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and AEK Athens 4-1-0 (2.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Panathinaikos vs AEK Athens?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Panathinaikos vs AEK Athens: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.