Panevėžys vs Kauno Žalgiris: match statistics
Panevėžys vs Kauno Žalgiris: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Panevėžys played Kauno Žalgiris in A Lyga (Lithuania). The match was played on 10 May 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Panevėžys: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. Kauno Žalgiris: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Panevėžys scores 1.00 and concedes 1.67 goals per match. Kauno Žalgiris scores 2.67 and concedes 0.75. League average: 2.59 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Panevėžys 58%, Kauno Žalgiris 50%. Over 2.5: Panevėžys 58%, Kauno Žalgiris 83%. League level: BTTS 47%, Over 2.5 53%.
xG, shots and style
Kauno Žalgiris has higher xG: 1.74 vs 1.22. Panevėžys: 10.4 shots per match, Kauno Žalgiris: 14.8.
Match halves
Panevėžys: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 0.33. Kauno Žalgiris: half-time lead 58%, second-half goals 1.33.
Goals by minute
Panevėžys: 31-45+ (4 goals). Kauno Žalgiris: 31-45+ (10 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
A Lyga: 2.59 goals per match, BTTS 47%, Over 2.5 53%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 5 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-4. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 20%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Kauno Žalgiris are clear favourites: they sit 1st with a season record of 8 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss and 32 goals scored, while Panevėžys have 4 wins, 2 draws, 6 losses and 12 goals. The efficiency gap is evident — the visitors average 2.8 goals on the road, register 15.8 shots with 6.4 on target and have an 18% conversion, whereas the hosts at home average 1.0 goal, 11.8 shots with 4.4 on target and an 8% conversion. In terms of quality of chances Kauno Žalgiris post an average xG of 1.84 with xG conceded 1.12, while Panevėžys have xG 1.38 and xG against 1.32, which suggests the visitors create better chances despite a similar average of 0.8 goals conceded per match. Trends confirm the advantage: the visitors have an away run 'wwwwd', 12 goals in the last 5 matches and have never failed to score on the road (0% such games), whereas the hosts at home show 'ddwlw', 7 goals in the last 5 and failed to score in 40% of home games. Considering the higher goals average (2.8 vs 1.0), better conversion (18% vs 8%) and notably higher xG (1.84 vs 1.38), I predict a victory for the visitors.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Analysis moderately favors BTTS: Kauno Žalgiris has a seasonal BTTS rate of 60% versus Panevėžys 43%, and both teams register BTTS in 60% of their last 5 matches. Both sides create chances — average xG 1.66 (Panevėžys) vs 1.84 (Kauno), average shots 14.0 vs 15.8 and shots on target 5.71 vs 6.4 — which increases the likelihood of goals from both teams. Against this is Panevėžys’ high clean sheet rate: 57% seasonal clean sheets and a league-wide clean sheet rate of 68%, and season average goals conceded are low: 0.71 for the home side and 0.8 for the away. However, in the last 5 matches Panevėžys concedes 1.6 goals and scores 1.4 on average, while Kauno scores 2.4 and concedes 1.2, and matches frequently exceed 2.5 goals (71% for Panevėžys, 100% for Kauno). Therefore I assess BTTS at 57% vs 43% and recommend: BTTS - Yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Panevėžys (xG_for 1.66 vs xG_against_away 1.12) and 1.42 for Kauno Žalgiris (xG_for 1.84 vs xG_against_home 1.00), totaling 2.81 goals. A Poisson model with λ=2.81 yields roughly a 77% chance of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) and about 53% for at least 3 goals (Over 2.5). Season-long metrics confirm an offensive profile: Panevėžys has Over 1.5 in 86% and Over 2.5 in 71% of matches, while Kauno Žalgiris records 100% and 100% respectively, which raises the practical probability of a higher goal count. Additionally, both teams average 14 and 15.8 shots per game with a conversion rate of 18%; in the last 5 matches Panevėžys scored 7 goals (1.4 avg) and Kauno Žalgiris 12 goals (2.4 avg), supporting a minimum-2-goal scenario. Based on this, I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal (estimated 92%), Over 2.5 at 72%, and Over 3.5 at 42%.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Panevėžys has very strong first-half statistics: they led at the break in 5 matches (71%), scoring an average of 1.57 goals by half-time and conceding only 0.14, with 86% clean sheets at the break. Kauno Žalgiris is stronger over the full 90 minutes — the visitors score on average 2.8 goals per match with xG 1.84 versus the hosts’ 2.57 goals and xG 1.66, and their season win rate is 80%. The visitors’ key advantage is the second half: Kauno Žalgiris scores on average 1.8 goals after the break, has accumulated 15 points in second halves (an average of 3.0 points) and practically do not concede after half-time (0.0 goals conceded in 2H). Based on this, the strongest signal is a scenario where the home side lead at the break (71% leads and 1.57 HT goals) and the visitors complete a turnaround after the break (1.8 goals in 2H and 3.0 points in 2H) — HT/FT = 1/2.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Panevėžys | Kauno Žalgiris | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 41% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.26 | 0.45 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Kauno Žalgiris is 33% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Panevėžys · 1.6 pts / match - Kauno Žalgiris
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Kauno Žalgiris is 167% better for: goals scored per match.
1 goals / match - Panevėžys · 2.67 goals / match - Kauno Žalgiris
Kauno Žalgiris is 123% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.67 goals / match - Panevėžys · 0.75 goals / match - Kauno Žalgiris
Panevėžys scores in 67% of matches (8 of 12 matches), while Kauno Žalgiris keeps a clean sheet in 50% (6 of 12 matches).
Kauno Žalgiris scores in 100% of matches (12 of 12 matches), while Panevėžys keeps a clean sheet in 17% (2 of 12 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Panevėžys
Over / Under - Kauno Žalgiris
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Kauno Žalgiris is 44% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.33 pts / match - Panevėžys · 1.92 pts / match - Kauno Žalgiris
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Panevėžys - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 33%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Kauno Žalgiris - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 58% of matches and wins 67%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 20% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +5 | +3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (4 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (10 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): +8 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Panevėžys
Kauno Žalgiris
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (A Lyga).
Teams vs league
| Panevėžys | Liga | Kauno Žalgiris | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.67 | 2.59 | ▲ 3.42 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 58% | 47% | ▲ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 58% | 53% | ▲ 83% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 17% | 33% | ▲ 50% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 75% | 69% | ▲ 92% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 67% | 75% | ▲ 92% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (5): Panevėžys 1 - 0 - 4 Kauno Žalgiris. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 20% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Panevėžys vs Kauno Žalgiris?
The A Lyga match finished Panevėžys 1:1 Kauno Žalgiris. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Panevėžys and Kauno Žalgiris?
In the last 5 head-to-head matches Panevėžys won 1, Kauno Žalgiris won 4 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 20% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Panevėžys vs Kauno Žalgiris?
Panevėžys score 1.00 goals per game on average and Kauno Žalgiris 2.67. The A Lyga average is 2.59 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 53% of games. Both teams score in 58% of Panevėžys's matches and 50% of Kauno Žalgiris's.
What form are Panevėžys and Kauno Žalgiris in?
Over the last 5 games Panevėžys have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Kauno Žalgiris 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Panevėžys vs Kauno Žalgiris?
The statistical background for Panevėžys vs Kauno Žalgiris — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.