PAOK II vs Ellas Syros: match statistics

Ellas Syros are unbeaten in their last five matches, recording 2 wins and 3 draws, while PAOK II have won twice, drawn once and lost twice. The visitors scored 10 goals and conceded 4 over that period, compared with the hosts’ 6:6 record, which points to greater attacking efficiency and a more solid defence. PAOK II do, however, have home advantage in their favour: they average 1.5 goals per match, with an xG of 1.27 against just 0.92 xG conceded to their opponents. Ellas Syros’ 4 goals per away match look impressive, but with an average of 3 shots and an xG of 0.64, it is difficult to expect them to maintain that level of conversion. I therefore give the visitors the edge on the basis of their results and goal difference, although the quality of the chances created by the hosts means this remains an open contest.

Both teams have scored in 60% of their last 5 matches, which points towards goals from both sides. Ellas Syros averaged 2.0 goals during this period, while PAOK II averaged 1.2; the visitors also conceded an average of 0.8 goals, giving the hosts a genuine chance of scoring. However, the signal is not strong: PAOK II kept a clean sheet in 67% of their home matches, and both teams scored in only 33% of those games. Although Ellas Syros averages 4.0 goals away from home, its away xG is just 0.64, so that scoring record should be treated with caution. Ultimately, the teams’ recent scoring form narrowly outweighs the case for BTTS - No, which means at least one team will fail to score.

At least two goals were scored in 67% of PAOK II’s home matches and 100% of Ellas Syros’ away matches, supporting Over 1.5 goals. The visitors averaged 4.0 goals scored away from home, but their average over the last five matches was 2.0, so I do not expect them to sustain such a high scoring rate. PAOK II averaged 1.67 goals at home, giving both teams a chance to contribute to the scoreline. Caution on higher lines is warranted by the league average of 2.16 goals and the fact that the 2.5-goal line was surpassed in 40% of PAOK II’s and 60% of Ellas Syros’ matches over the last five games. Therefore, Over 1.5 is a stronger pick than Over 2.5, with a projected total of 2.70 goals.

The strongest half-time signal is a draw: PAOK II were level at the break in all 3 of their home matches, while Ellas Syros have drawn at half-time in each of their last 5 games. After the break, the advantage shifts to the visitors, who have scored an average of 1.8 goals in the second half across their last 5 matches, while the hosts have conceded an average of 0.8. Over the same period, Ellas Syros averaged 2.0 goals per match compared with PAOK II’s 1.2 and remained unbeaten, while the hosts lost twice. Therefore, a draw at half-time followed by an away win is the most likely outcome, although caution is warranted given that PAOK II kept a clean sheet in 2 of their 3 home matches and Ellas Syros’ away statistics are based on just 1 match.