Paphos vs AEK Larnaca: match statistics
Paphos presents impressive home form with 88% of matches won and only 13% lost, making them a very difficult rival at their own stadium. The hosts have a better average of goals scored in home matches (2.25) and higher shot conversion efficiency (19% vs 15%), while also dominating possession (60% vs 56%). AEK Larnaca, despite solid away form (56% wins), lost their last away match and shows a higher percentage of games without scoring on the road (22% vs 13% for Paphos at home). The difference in goal difference also speaks in favor of the hosts (+15 in home matches vs +9 for the guests on the road). Considering all these factors, Paphos is predicted as the slight favorite, although AEK Larnaca has the potential to put up stiff resistance, which increases the chance of a draw.
Paphos vs AEK Larnaca: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Paphos played AEK Larnaca in First Division (Cyprus). The match was played on 25 January 2026. Final score: 1:2.
Current form
Paphos: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match. AEK Larnaca: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Paphos scores 1.94 and concedes 0.82 goals per match. AEK Larnaca scores 1.83 and concedes 0.89. League average: 2.51 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Paphos 41%, AEK Larnaca 56%. Over 2.5: Paphos 53%, AEK Larnaca 44%. League level: BTTS 37%, Over 2.5 47%.
xG, shots and style
AEK Larnaca has higher xG: 1.49 vs 1.48. Paphos: 11.3 shots per match, AEK Larnaca: 12.1.
Match halves
Paphos: half-time lead 65%, second-half goals 1.00. AEK Larnaca: half-time lead 56%, second-half goals 0.83.
Goals by minute
Paphos: 76-90+ (11 goals). AEK Larnaca: 0-15 (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
First Division: 2.51 goals per match, BTTS 37%, Over 2.5 47%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 6.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Paphos presents impressive home form with 88% of matches won and only 13% lost, making them a very difficult rival at their own stadium. The hosts have a better average of goals scored in home matches (2.25) and higher shot conversion efficiency (19% vs 15%), while also dominating possession (60% vs 56%). AEK Larnaca, despite solid away form (56% wins), lost their last away match and shows a higher percentage of games without scoring on the road (22% vs 13% for Paphos at home). The difference in goal difference also speaks in favor of the hosts (+15 in home matches vs +9 for the guests on the road). Considering all these factors, Paphos is predicted as the slight favorite, although AEK Larnaca has the potential to put up stiff resistance, which increases the chance of a draw.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Paphos | AEK Larnaca | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 42% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
AEK Larnaca is 11% better for: last-5 form.
1.8 pts / match - Paphos · 2 pts / match - AEK Larnaca
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Paphos is 6% better for: goals scored per match.
1.94 goals / match - Paphos · 1.83 goals / match - AEK Larnaca
Paphos is 9% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.82 goals / match - Paphos · 0.89 goals / match - AEK Larnaca
Paphos scores in 88% of matches (15 of 17 matches), while AEK Larnaca keeps a clean sheet in 33% (6 of 18 matches).
AEK Larnaca scores in 89% of matches (16 of 18 matches), while Paphos keeps a clean sheet in 47% (8 of 17 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Paphos
Over / Under - AEK Larnaca
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Paphos is 18% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
2.29 pts / match - Paphos · 1.94 pts / match - AEK Larnaca
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Paphos - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 65% of matches and wins 71%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
AEK Larnaca - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 56% of matches and wins 61%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (11 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +6 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Paphos
AEK Larnaca
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (First Division).
Teams vs league
| Paphos | Liga | AEK Larnaca | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.76 | 2.51 | ▲ 2.72 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 41% | 37% | ▲ 56% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 53% | 47% | ▼ 44% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 47% | 34% | • 33% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 76% | 71% | ▲ 78% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 88% | 81% | ▲ 83% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Paphos 1 - 0 - 0 AEK Larnaca. Average goals 6.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Paphos vs AEK Larnaca?
The First Division match finished Paphos 1:2 AEK Larnaca. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Paphos vs AEK Larnaca?
Paphos score 1.94 goals per game on average and AEK Larnaca 1.83. The First Division average is 2.51 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 47% of games. Both teams score in 41% of Paphos's matches and 56% of AEK Larnaca's.
What form are Paphos and AEK Larnaca in?
Over the last 5 games Paphos have a 3-0-2 record (1.80 points per game) and AEK Larnaca 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Paphos vs AEK Larnaca?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Paphos vs AEK Larnaca: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.