Paphos vs Olympiakos: match statistics

Paphos sit 2nd in the table, while Olympiakos are only 10th, and the hosts opened the season with a 3:0 victory. In their last five matches, Paphos have scored 11 goals, one more than Olympiakos, although both teams have conceded 7 goals during that period. The visitors have a slightly better recent points record, averaging 2 points per match across their last five appearances compared with Paphos’ 1.6, and they won 3 of those games. Home advantage, the higher league position and the goalless result in the first league meeting nevertheless give Paphos a slight edge. Olympiakos’ defence already conceded 3 goals in their only match of the season, giving the hosts a strong argument to capitalise on their attacking efficiency and secure the win.

The data from the last five matches clearly supports goals from both sides: Paphos has recorded BTTS in 60% of its matches, while Olympiakos has done so in as many as 80%. Both teams are effective in front of goal, averaging 2.2 and 2.0 goals respectively, while conceding an identical average of 1.4 goals per match. The quality of chances created is also sufficient for both teams to score, with average xG figures of 1.77 for Paphos and 1.58 for Olympiakos. In the current home data, Paphos has seen BTTS land in 100% of matches, while Olympiakos has scored 10 goals in total across its last five fixtures. Although the league-wide BTTS average is only 43%, the current attacking form of both teams, combined with their defensive vulnerability, points more strongly towards a scenario in which each team scores at least one goal.

Both teams are showing strong attacking form: Paphos have scored 11 goals in their last 5 matches, while Olympiakos have scored 10, averaging 2.2 and 2.0 goals per game, respectively. At the same time, each team has conceded 7 goals during this period, an average of 1.4 goals conceded per match, which weakens the case for a low-scoring game. Their average xG across the last five outings stands at 1.77 for Paphos and 1.58 for Olympiakos, while their opponents allow 1.41 and 1.20 xG, respectively. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Paphos’ recent matches and as many as 80% of Olympiakos’ matches, compared with a league average of 3.14 goals per game. The strongest selection is Over 1.5 goals, as the projected total of 3.10 goals and the consistent scoring output of both teams clearly support at least two goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an Olympiakos win, as Paphos have drawn at the break in 60% of their last five matches and conceded just 0.2 goals per game during that period. Olympiakos have had more variable starts: they led at the break in 40% of matches, but in another 40% they went into half-time behind, increasing the likelihood of a level score after the first half. After the break, the visitors averaged 1.0 goal and did not lose any of their five second halves, recording an average of 2.2 points in those periods compared with Paphos’ 1.4. Across their last five overall appearances, Olympiakos won 60% of matches and averaged 2.0 goals, while Paphos won 40% and conceded an average of 1.4 goals. However, the hosts remain a dangerous attacking side, with an average xG of 1.75 and seven shots on target in their league match so far; therefore, a draw at half-time remains more likely than a clear advantage for the visitors from the outset.