Paraguarí vs Guaireña: match statistics

Paraguarí have a clear home advantage: they win 45% of their home matches, while Guaireña win just 20% of their away fixtures and draw as many as 40%. The hosts concede an average of 0.91 goals per home game, fewer than the visitors score away from home (1.00), while Guaireña fail to score in 40% of their away matches. Over the last five rounds, Paraguarí collected 7 points through 2 wins and a draw, whereas the visitors managed only 4 points, losing 3 times. Both teams conceded 6 goals during this period, but Paraguarí scored 5 compared with Guaireña’s 4. The quality of chances also slightly favours the hosts, as their average home xG stands at 1.38, with 1.34 xG conceded, while the visitors allow their opponents as much as 1.60 xG away from home.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is Paraguarí’s very low seasonal rate of matches in which both teams scored, at just 27%, compared with 56% for the league as a whole. The hosts average only 0.82 goals per match and have failed to score in 55% of their games, while Guaireña keep a clean sheet in just 20% of matches but also score only once per game on average. In the last five rounds, both teams recorded BTTS in 40% of their matches, with goal differences of 5:6 and 4:6 respectively, indicating limited attacking consistency. The situational potential is moderate, as the average xG stands at 1.41 for Paraguarí and 1.39 for Guaireña, while the hosts convert shots into goals at a rate of only 7%. A scenario in which at least one team fails to score therefore remains more likely than both sides finding the net.

Both teams have a low average goals scored: Paraguarí scores 0.82 goals per match, while Guaireña averages 1.00. The 3.5-goal line has not been exceeded in 82% of the home side’s matches and 80% of the visitors’ games, while Over 2.5 goals has landed in only 36% and 40% of their respective appearances. The current form also does not point to an open game, as the teams have averaged 1.0 and 0.8 goals respectively over their last 5 matches, while both have conceded 1.2 goals per game. The projected total of 2.14 goals takes into account slightly higher xG figures of 1.41 for Paraguarí and 1.39 for Guaireña, but also their low conversion rates of 7% and 9%. Under 3.5 has a clear edge, as both teams’ profiles much more frequently produce matches with a maximum of three goals.

A draw at half-time is the most logical starting point, as Paraguarí were level at the break in 55% of their matches, compared with 60% for Guaireña. Both teams’ first halves tend to be low-scoring: the hosts average 0.27 goals in the opening 45 minutes, while the visitors average 0.40, with Guaireña recording at least two first-half goals in only 10% of their matches. After the interval, the advantage should shift towards Paraguarí, who concede just 0.36 goals per second half, compared with 1.00 for Guaireña, who lose this period in 60% of their appearances. The hosts also have a superior season points tally, 1.27 versus 1.00, while their average xG against stands at 1.33, compared with 1.60 for the visitors. Therefore, the most likely HT/FT outcome is a level score at half-time followed by a Paraguarí victory at the final whistle.