Pardubice vs Jablonec: match statistics

I predict a home win (1): Pardubice have won 3 of their last 5 matches and scored 8 goals in that period, while Jablonec have won 2 of their last 5 and scored 7 goals. The defensive difference is significant: Pardubice conceded 7 goals in their last five matches (avg. 1.4 per game), whereas Jablonec conceded 13 goals (avg. 2.6 per game), which considerably reduces the visitors' chances. Pardubice have averaged 1.8 points per game over the last 5 matches, compared to Jablonec's 1.2, and seasonal figures show 1 goal scored and 2 conceded for Pardubice versus 2 scored and 1 conceded for Jablonec, though these season numbers are less indicative than recent form. Lack of reliable average xG and shot accuracy data (zero values in the provided stats) means I infer mainly from actual goals and results — the hosts are slightly more productive in the last 5 matches (avg. 1.6 goals per match vs 1.4) and demonstrate more stable form. Based on this, I estimate a 55% chance of a Pardubice win, 25% for a draw and 20% for a Jablonec win.

A strong case for BTTS - Yes is the league’s high rate — 88% of matches feature both teams scoring — and Pardubice’s home BTTS rate of 100% this season. In the last 5 matches both teams show 80% BTTS (80% for home and 80% for away), reinforcing this trend. Defensive numbers also point toward goals: Jablonec has conceded an average of 2.6 goals in the last 5 matches (13 conceded), while Pardubice concedes 1.4 (7 conceded), increasing the likelihood of strikes from both sides. Pardubice scores 2.0 goals per game at home with xG 2.12 and averages 7 shots on target, while Jablonec has xG 1.65 over the last 5 matches — both teams create chances and have goal-scoring potential. Jablonec’s season data (seasonScoredAVG_away 0.0, xg_for_avg_away 0.0) appears incomplete, so I rely on the last 5 matches and the high 88% league rate; on that basis I recommend BTTS 'yes'.

The model estimates 1.39 goals for Pardubice and 1.50 goals for Jablonec, totaling 2.89 goals. This aligns with xG: Pardubice has average xG of 1.37 in the last 5 matches, and Jablonec 1.65, with average conceded xG 1.36 (Pardubice) and 1.40 (Jablonec), which favors goal exchange. Additionally the league averages 3.88 goals per match and 88% of games Over 2.5; in the last 5 fixtures Pardubice had 80% Over 2.5 and Jablonec 100% Over 2.5, so the 2.5 line has strong support. Pardubice score 2.0 goals per season average and register 7.0 shots on target per match and 100% of matches Over 1.5, therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (~96%), and Over 2.5 also looks likely (~82%). The 3.5 line is less certain — expected 2.89 goals and Pardubice having 0% of season matches Over 3.5 give a small edge to Under 3.5 (~54%).

Pardubice have an xG of 2.12 versus Jablonec’s 0.00 and average 7 shots on target at home, indicating a clear attacking advantage for the hosts. At home Pardubice average 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while in first halves they average 0.0 scored and 1.0 conceded, which suggests frequent turnarounds after the break. In their last 5 matches the hosts were level at half-time in 60% of cases, while averaging 2.0 goals in second halves, increasing the likelihood of a win after the break. The visitors concede an average of 2.6 goals in their last 5 fixtures and have a 0% win rate on these away trips, so the most justified scenario is a draw at half-time and a Pardubice win at full-time (X/1) with an assigned probability of 39%.