Pardubice vs Zlín: match statistics

Pardubice are the form- and stats-based favourite: the hosts have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 4, averaging 2.4 points per match in that period, while Zlín has only 1 win in the last 5 and averages 0.6 points. In home games Pardubice average 11.93 shots with 3.43 on target and have xG 1.4, versus Zlín’s 10.07 shots and 2.36 on target and xG 1.13 away; shot conversion is 8% for the hosts vs 9% for the visitors. Pardubice score 1.00 goal per home match on average, and Zlín 0.93 away, but the visitors fail to score more frequently (43% of matches without a goal vs 21% for the hosts). Defensively Zlín have recently been prone to errors — 16 goals conceded in 5 matches — despite a seasonal away concession rate of 1.5 goals; Pardubice conceded 4 in their last 5 and 1.64 on average at home. Considering the clear form advantage, higher shot volume and superior xG for the hosts, I forecast a Pardubice win.

I forecast BTTS - Yes with a 65% probability versus 35% for No. The primary argument is the visitors’ form: Zlín has an 80% BTTS rate in the last 5 matches and has conceded an average of 3.2 goals across those five fixtures (16 goals total), which strongly increases the likelihood of the opponent scoring. Pardubice have a season BTTS of 60% versus Zlín’s 43%, a seasonal goals-scored average of 1.53 vs 0.93 for the visitors, higher xG 1.38 vs 1.13 and more on-target shots 3.87 vs 2.36, indicating the home side create chances and have a greater probability of scoring. Counter-signals are Pardubice’s low recent goals conceded average in the last 5 matches (0.8) and 20% clean sheets on the season versus Zlín’s 36%, however the scale of the visitors’ defensive problems (16 conceded in 5) outweighs this. Considering the league BTTS average of 50% and the fact that xG against both teams hovers around 1.6–1.69, the statistical balance favors a Both Teams To Score scenario.

Pardubice average 1.53 goals scored and concede 1.60 per match, Zlín score 0.93 and concede 1.50; their average xG are 1.38 (Pardubice) and 1.13 (Zlín), while xG against are 1.60 (Pardubice) and 1.69 (Zlín). Based on these values I expect 1.54 goals for Pardubice (xG 1.38 vs opposition 1.69) and 1.36 for Zlín (xG 1.13 vs opposition 1.60), total 2.90, which is above the league average of 2.6. Season indicators confirm a tendency for many goals: Pardubice had over 1.5 in 87% of matches, Zlín in 57%, and a Poisson model for a 2.90 mean gives over 1.5 at around 78–79%. Over 2.5 is moderate (model P≥3 ≈55.4%), while over 3.5 is unlikely (P≥4 ≈33%), so the strongest signal is over 1.5. Additionally, Zlín have conceded 16 goals in the last 5 matches and had 100% of games over 2.5 in that period, whereas Pardubice in the last 5 scored 7 and conceded 4, which reinforces the expectation of more goals.

Pardubice led at half-time in 6 of their matches so far (40%), while Zlín did so in only 3 (21%), indicating a home advantage in the first 45 minutes. The hosts average 1.53 goals per match versus Zlín’s 0.93; their xG is 1.38 vs 1.13, they average 3.87 shots on target against the visitors’ 2.36 and have a conversion rate of 13% vs 9%, so they are more likely to open the scoring. Additionally, Pardubice’s form is WLWWW with an 80% win rate in the last 5 matches, while Zlín are LLLLW with a 20% win rate, which increases the probability of maintaining a lead to full-time. Second-half analysis shows the hosts generate an average of 1.73 goals in the second half and score 0.73 in that period, while Zlín have 1.07 and 0.43 respectively, suggesting Pardubice have greater capability to see out a victory after the break. Therefore I assign the highest probability to the 1/1 (Half-Time/Full-Time) scenario at 30%, giving 13% to 1/X as an alternative and only 10% to the most pessimistic 2/2 outcome.