Paris vs Brest: match statistics

Paris holds a clear advantage in form and efficiency: in the last five matches the hosts scored 11 goals, won 3 games and average 2.0 points per match, while Brest has not won in their last 5, scored 7 goals and averages only 0.4 points per match with 13 goals conceded. Over the season at home Paris averages 1.47 goals and has xG 1.42 with 4 shots on target and 13 total shots, whereas Brest away scores 1.00 goal with an average xG 1.03, 2.67 shots on target and 8.87 total shots, indicating a higher quantity and quality of chances for the hosts. Defensively the visitors perform worse — Brest concedes 1.8 goals on average away and has a higher xG against (1.69) than Paris at home (1.31 xG against), and the away goal difference for the visitors is -12 versus -4 for the hosts at home. Additionally Brest have a 53% loss rate away and only 13% clean sheets, while Paris lose 40% of home matches and have 20% clean sheets; both teams failed to score in 33% of their home/away matches. On this basis I predict a Paris win and estimate probabilities of 62% for the hosts, 20% for a draw and 18% for the visitors.

Paris has a seasonal goals scored average of 1.73 (xG 1.40) and concedes 1.33 goals per match, while Brest scores 1.00 goals on average (xG 1.03) and concedes 1.80 goals per match. In the last 5 matches Paris had BTTS in 80% of games, averaged 2.2 scored and conceded 1.2, whereas Brest has 60% BTTS, scores 1.4 and concedes as much as 2.6 per match (13 conceded in 5), which significantly increases the risk of conceding. Paris at home averages 4.4 SOT and 13.13 total shots with a conversion rate of 13%, while Brest away has only 2.67 SOT and 8.87 shots, yet Brest’s away clean sheet rate is only 13% (no clean sheet in 87% of away games). Seasonal BTTS rates are 40% for Paris and 53% for Brest against a league average of 50%, so signals are mixed, but the high recent BTTS form of the home side (80%) and Brest’s poor defense in the last 5 matches (2.6 conceded average) argue for a both teams to score scenario. On that basis I recommend BTTS - Yes with an estimated probability 72% vs 28% for No.

I project a total of around 2.75 goals: 1.55 for Paris and 1.20 for Brest, which strongly supports an over market. Paris scores an average of 1.73 goals at home with an xG of 1.4, while Brest averages 1.0 goals away with an xG of 1.03; simultaneously Brest concedes 1.8 goals away on average with an xG-against of 1.69, which lifts the hosts’ expected goals. Paris averages 13.13 shots and 4.4 on target per match versus Brest’s 8.87 and 2.67, and season-long over 1.5 occurred in 80% of Paris matches and 87% of Brest matches. Although Paris has 47% clean sheets at home, Brest’s low away clean sheet rate (13%) and recent runs (Paris scored 11 goals in the last 5 matches) increase the likelihood of at least 2 goals. Therefore I recommend over 1.5 as the strongest signal; over 2.5 I rate as moderate (approx. 52%), and over 3.5 has a low probability (approx. 30%).

Paris holds a clear advantage in the data: on average 1.73 goals per match versus 1.00 for Brest, xG 1.40 vs 1.03 and 13.13 shots with 4.4 on target compared to 8.87 and 2.67 for the visitors, suggesting greater chance creation and control. At half-time the home side average 0.87 goals and the visitors 0.53, and Paris has led at the break in 6 matches this season (40%), increasing the likelihood of a lead after 45 minutes. In their last 5 matches Paris won 60% of games, while Brest have 0% wins and were behind at the break in 80% of those fixtures, meaning the visitors often start poorly. Additionally Brest concede an average 1.8 goals per match and have only a 13% clean sheet rate away, whereas Paris keep a clean sheet at home in 47% of games; therefore the most likely scenario is Paris leading at half-time and winning by full-time (HT/FT 1/1).