Partick Thistle vs Dunfermline Athletic: match statistics

Partick Thistle holds a clear home advantage in underlying metrics: at Firhill they average 11.81 shots (4.75 on target) per match, with home xG of 1.53 and just 0.69 goals conceded per game alongside a 44% clean sheet rate. Dunfermline Athletic, however, are in excellent attacking form — 14 goals in their last 5 matches (2.8 per game) and 2.6 points per game over that span, with a higher finishing rate (18% vs the hosts’ 14%). Season-to-date both teams have scored 48 goals, but Partick display greater home stability: 69% home wins and formally 0% home defeats in the dataset, suggesting the hosts’ defence (0.69 goals conceded) can blunt the visitors’ recent finishing (Dunfermline concede 1.2 goals on average away). Additionally, the hosts generate more chances (11.81 vs 8.87 shots and 4.75 vs 3.87 on target) and have higher xG (1.53 vs 1.23), indicating superior chance quality; the visitors rely more on finishing efficiency. Considering the superiority in chance quality and the hosts’ defensive solidity, I predict a Partick Thistle win; estimated probabilities: ~60% home, 20% draw, 20% away.

Both teams have season BTTS rates of 38% (Partick Thistle) and 40% (Dunfermline), clearly below the league average of 49%, indicating a lower-than-average frequency of matches where both sides score. In the last 5 fixtures both teams have conceded 3 goals each (0.6 per game), suggesting solid defense and an increased likelihood of a clean sheet for one side. Dunfermline have scored 14 goals in the last 5 (2.8 per game) and record a recent xG_for of 1.44, while Partick have a season xG_for of 1.46 with xG_against_away 1.34, so the visitors can create threat but do not dominate statistically. Additionally, clean sheet rates of 44% (Partick) and 40% (Dunfermline) combined with low season BTTS (38% and 40%) favor the "No" option; therefore I recommend BTTS = "No" with a probability of 60% versus 40% for "Yes".

I estimated expected goals by combining the home attack xG with the away defense xG: Partick has attack xG 1.46 and Dunfermline concedes 1.34 => approx. 1.40 for the home side; Dunfermline has attack xG 1.23 and the hosts concede 1.26 => ~1.25 for the away side, total 2.65. Seasonally both teams have a high share of matches over 1.5 goals: Partick 75% and Dunfermline 73%, therefore I assess Over 1.5 at 84%. The 2.5 line is also relevant — season over2.5 rates are 50% (Partick) and 53% (Dunfermline), and Dunfermline scored 14 goals in the last 5 matches (avg 2.8), which raises the probability of Over 2.5 to 58%. Over 3.5 is less certain: season over3.5 are 31% and 33% (avg ~32%), so I assign a 33% chance; the percentage of matches where both teams scored is 38% for Partick and 40% for Dunfermline, which limits the likelihood of a very high-scoring game. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 (pick: Over 1.5) due to combined xG 2.65, historical 75/73% for over1.5 and Dunfermline’s form, which provides the best probability-to-risk ratio.

Half-time statistics favor Dunfermline: they average 0.8 goals in the first half versus Partick's 0.63, and the seasonal rate of leading at the break is 40% for the visitors compared to 38% for the hosts. In the last 5 matches Dunfermline scores an average of 2.8 goals per game versus 1.6 for Partick, and in 60% of those games they led at the break (vs 40% for Partick), confirming the visitors' strong form. Partick creates more chances (xG 1.46 vs 1.23 and 4.63 shots on target vs 3.87), but Dunfermline are more efficient (conversion rate 18% vs 13%), so they turn opportunities into goals more often. The second half also favors the visitors — in their last 5 games the away side averages 1.8 goals after the break and 100% of matches have seen >0.5 goals in the second half, therefore the most likely scenario is a lead at the break and a full-time win for the visitors (2/2).