Patronato vs Nueva Chicago: match statistics
Patronato vs Nueva Chicago: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Patronato played Nueva Chicago in Prim B Nacional (Argentina). The match was played on 3 May 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Patronato: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Nueva Chicago: 1-4-0, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Patronato scores 0.40 and concedes 0.90 goals per match. Nueva Chicago scores 1.00 and concedes 0.60. League average: 1.81 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Patronato 10%, Nueva Chicago 30%. Over 2.5: Patronato 20%, Nueva Chicago 30%. League level: BTTS 38%, Over 2.5 28%.
xG, shots and style
Nueva Chicago has higher xG: 1.18 vs 1.09. Patronato: 8.9 shots per match, Nueva Chicago: 9.7.
Match halves
Patronato: half-time lead 10%, second-half goals 0.30. Nueva Chicago: half-time lead 20%, second-half goals 0.70.
Goals by minute
Patronato: 46-60 (2 goals). Nueva Chicago: 61-75 (3 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Prim B Nacional: 1.81 goals per match, BTTS 38%, Over 2.5 28%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Nueva Chicago has a clear statistical edge, so I back them to win: away they average 1.0 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded per game, while Patronato at home score 0.75 and concede 1.0. Visitors register 3.2 shots on target per match versus hosts' 2.25 and have a higher conversion rate (11% vs 8%), which translates into 10 goals this season compared to the hosts' 4. Form stability also favors Nueva Chicago: 60% away wins and 1.4 points in the last 5 matches, while Patronato have just 25% home wins and 1.0 point in that period. Additionally, the visitors keep 60% clean sheets on the road and concede far fewer goals (0.6 vs 1.0), despite the hosts having a slightly higher xG (1.16) than the visitors (1.04), indicating Patronato’s finishing issues (50% of matches without a goal). Considering better away efficiency, more shots on target and a more solid defense, I rate Nueva Chicago’s chances of winning significantly higher than a draw or a Patronato win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Patronato has a seasonal BTTS rate of 40% and Nueva Chicago only 20%, averaging 30% versus the league 36% — this already suggests a lower probability for Goal/Goal. Additionally, both teams register many clean sheets: 60% (Patronato) and 60% (Nueva Chicago), while the league clean sheet rate reaches 83%, which strengthens the No Goal signal. Attacking metrics show the home side at 1.31 xG and an average of 4.2 shots on target, and the visitors at 1.04 xG and 3.2 shots on target, but this season Patronato has only 4 goals scored and 9 conceded, whereas Nueva Chicago has 10 scored and 6 conceded — the real goal-scoring ability clearly favors the visitors. In the last 5 matches Patronato has 0% BTTS with averages of 1.0 goals scored and 4.0 conceded, and Nueva Chicago 40% BTTS with 4.0 scored and 3.0 conceded; this means the scoring risk comes mainly from the away side, while the home team often remains goalless. As a result, the strongest signal from the data points to No Goal — I propose 70% for 'no' and 30% for 'yes'.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
xG analysis: Patronato has xG_for 1.31, Nueva Chicago 1.04, and xG against of 1.57 (Patronato) and 1.64 (Nueva Chicago), yielding projected goals of 1.48 for the home side and 1.30 for the visitors (total 2.78). A Poisson model with lambda=2.78 gives ~76.6% probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), ~52.6% for ≥3 goals (Over 2.5) and ~30.5% for ≥4 goals (Over 3.5). Conversely, the league averages only 1.78 goals per game and an Over 2.5 rate of 28%, and both teams keep clean sheets 60% of the time, which limits the likelihood of a high-scoring game. Additionally, hosts average 10.2 shots (4.2 on target) and visitors 9.2 (3.2 on target) with conversion rates around 10–11%, so despite higher xG the finishing may be moderate; therefore the strongest signal from the data is a bet on Over 1.5 (line 1.5) with an estimated ~77% probability.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely scenario is a Half-Time/Full-Time X/2 (draw at the break, away win), because both teams were tied at half-time in 60% of matches (drawingAtHTPercentage_home 60% and drawingAtHTPercentage_away 60%), and Nueva Chicago has clearly superior season figures: 2.0 pts/game and 60% wins versus Patronato's 1.4 pts/game and 20% wins. The away side is also stronger in the second half: average second-half goals are 1.0 for Nueva Chicago vs 0.8 for Patronato (AVG_2hg_away 1.0 vs AVG_2hg_home 0.8), and average goals scored in that period are 0.8 vs 0.6 (scored_2hg_avg_away 0.8 vs scored_2hg_avg_home 0.6). I expect a low-scoring first half (likely 0-0), supported by frequent first-half clean sheets: 60% at home and 80% away (seasonCSPercentageHT_home 60% and seasonCSPercentageHT_away 80%) and Patronato’s last five matches with a first-half goals average of 0.0 (last5_scoredAVGHT_overall_home 0.0) versus 0.2 for the visitors. Additionally, xG indicates a moderate number of chances (1.31 xG for the home side vs 1.04 for the away) and low conversion rates (10% vs 11%), so I forecast a single decisive goal after the break — hence 27% for X/2 and 21% for draw/draw as the second-strongest signal.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Patronato | Nueva Chicago | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 25% | 38% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Nueva Chicago is 40% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Patronato · 1.4 pts / match - Nueva Chicago
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Nueva Chicago is 150% better for: goals scored per match.
0.4 goals / match - Patronato · 1 goals / match - Nueva Chicago
Nueva Chicago is 50% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.9 goals / match - Patronato · 0.6 goals / match - Nueva Chicago
Patronato scores in 30% of matches (3 of 10 matches), while Nueva Chicago keeps a clean sheet in 60% (6 of 10 matches).
Nueva Chicago scores in 50% of matches (5 of 10 matches), while Patronato keeps a clean sheet in 60% (6 of 10 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Patronato
Over / Under - Nueva Chicago
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Nueva Chicago is 33% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.9 pts / match - Patronato · 1.2 pts / match - Nueva Chicago
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Patronato - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 10% of matches and wins 20%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Nueva Chicago - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 20% of matches and wins 40%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 20% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 100% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (2 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (3 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Patronato
Nueva Chicago
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Prim B Nacional).
Teams vs league
| Patronato | Liga | Nueva Chicago | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.30 | 1.81 | ▼ 1.60 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 10% | 38% | ▼ 30% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 20% | 28% | ▲ 30% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 60% | 40% | ▲ 60% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 40% | 59% | ▼ 40% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 60% | 70% | ▼ 50% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
FAQ
What was the result of Patronato vs Nueva Chicago?
The Prim B Nacional match finished Patronato 2:1 Nueva Chicago. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Patronato vs Nueva Chicago?
Patronato score 0.40 goals per game on average and Nueva Chicago 1.00. The Prim B Nacional average is 1.81 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 28% of games. Both teams score in 10% of Patronato's matches and 30% of Nueva Chicago's.
What form are Patronato and Nueva Chicago in?
Over the last 5 games Patronato have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Nueva Chicago 1-4-0 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Patronato vs Nueva Chicago?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Patronato vs Nueva Chicago: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.