Pau vs Bastia: match statistics
Pau performs decidedly better at their own stadium than Bastia does in away matches. The hosts average 1.31 goals per match at home and have a higher xG index (1.51 vs 1.02), which attests to their offensive potential. Bastia has a catastrophic efficiency on the road – only 8% wins, a staggering 75% of matches without scoring a goal, and an average of merely 0.42 goals per match. Although Pau has recently lost three consecutive matches, their home record (31% win rate) and statistical advantage in xG and possession (54% vs 48%) give them a real chance for three points. Considering the poor form of both teams, a draw is also possible, but the hosts' advantage in key offensive parameters argues for their victory.
Pau vs Bastia: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Pau play Bastia in Ligue 2 (France). The match date is 6 March 2026 at 20:00. Final score: 2:2.
Current form
Pau: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. Bastia: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Pau scores 1.41 and concedes 1.82 goals per match. Bastia scores 0.68 and concedes 1.15. League average: 2.53 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Pau 56%, Bastia 32%. Over 2.5: Pau 68%, Bastia 18%. League level: BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 47%.
xG, shots and style
Pau has higher xG: 1.35 vs 1.29. Pau: 12.2 shots per match, Bastia: 11.5.
Match halves
Pau: half-time lead 35%, second-half goals 0.59. Bastia: half-time lead 18%, second-half goals 0.26.
Goals by minute
Pau: 16-30 (10 goals). Bastia: 31-45+ (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ligue 2: 2.53 goals per match, BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 47%.
Head-to-head
1 H2H matches: 0-1-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 100%.
Match description
Pau performs decidedly better at their own stadium than Bastia does in away matches. The hosts average 1.31 goals per match at home and have a higher xG index (1.51 vs 1.02), which attests to their offensive potential. Bastia has a catastrophic efficiency on the road – only 8% wins, a staggering 75% of matches without scoring a goal, and an average of merely 0.42 goals per match. Although Pau has recently lost three consecutive matches, their home record (31% win rate) and statistical advantage in xG and possession (54% vs 48%) give them a real chance for three points. Considering the poor form of both teams, a draw is also possible, but the hosts' advantage in key offensive parameters argues for their victory.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Pau | Bastia | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 31% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.36 | 0.19 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Bastia is 17% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Pau · 1.4 pts / match - Bastia
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Pau is 107% better for: goals scored per match.
1.41 goals / match - Pau · 0.68 goals / match - Bastia
Bastia is 58% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.82 goals / match - Pau · 1.15 goals / match - Bastia
Pau scores in 82% of matches (28 of 34 matches), while Bastia keeps a clean sheet in 35% (12 of 34 matches).
Bastia scores in 47% of matches (16 of 34 matches), while Pau keeps a clean sheet in 29% (10 of 34 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Pau
Over / Under — Bastia
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Pau is 36% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.32 pts / match - Pau · 0.97 pts / match - Bastia
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Pau - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 35% of matches and wins 35%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Bastia - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 18% of matches and wins 15%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 2.4 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (10 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (16). Late-goal balance (76-90): -6 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (6 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -6 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Pau
Bastia
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ligue 2).
Teams vs league
| Pau | Liga | Bastia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.24 | 2.53 | ▼ 1.82 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 56% | 52% | ▼ 32% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 68% | 47% | ▼ 18% |
| Clean sheets | • 29% | 30% | ▲ 35% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 85% | 67% | ▼ 65% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 76% | 73% | ▼ 53% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Pau 0 - 1 - 0 Bastia. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Pau vs Bastia?
The Ligue 2 match finished Pau 2:2 Bastia. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Pau vs Bastia?
Pau score 1.41 goals per game on average and Bastia 0.68. The Ligue 2 average is 2.53 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 47% of games. Both teams score in 56% of Pau's matches and 32% of Bastia's.
What form are Pau and Bastia in?
Over the last 5 games Pau have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Bastia 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Pau vs Bastia?
The statistical background for Pau vs Bastia — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.