Paykan vs Shams Azar Qazvin: match statistics

Paykan sit 8th, while Shams Azar Qazvin are 16th, a difference reflected in their results: the hosts have won 2 of 7 matches, compared with just 1 for the visitors. In their last five matches, Paykan have collected 7 points and conceded 4 goals, while Shams Azar have taken 4 points and conceded 6. The strongest argument in the hosts’ favour is their home defence: they have kept clean sheets in all three such matches. However, their attack is a limitation—averaging 0.67 goals at home and failing to score in 67% of those games increases the likelihood of a draw. The visitors average 1 goal away from home, so despite Paykan’s advantage, a convincing win looks unlikely.

It is more likely that at least one team will fail to score: BTTS - Yes landed in 50% of Paykan’s matches and 33% of Shams Azar Qazvin’s, while the league average is 31%. Paykan score only 0.75 goals per match on average and failed to score in 50% of their games, while the visitors concede an average of 0.67 goals. BTTS - Yes landed just once in Paykan’s last five matches and twice in Shams Azar Qazvin’s, even though both teams averaged 1 goal scored per game over that period. The visitors’ chance of scoring is increased by Paykan’s season average of 1.75 goals conceded, but that figure has fallen to 0.8 over their last five matches, further supporting the BTTS - No pick. BTTS - No means that at least one team is expected not to score; it does not necessarily mean a 0-0 draw.

The strongest signal points to Under 3.5 goals: all of Shams Azar Qazvin’s matches to date and 75% of Paykan’s fixtures have finished below this line. Paykan’s last five matches averaged 1.8 goals, while the visitors’ matches averaged 2.2; Over 2.5 goals landed in 20% and 40% of those games, respectively. The hosts score an average of 0.75 goals per game this season, while the visitors concede 0.67, limiting Paykan’s prospects of a high-scoring performance. Although Paykan concede an average of 1.75 goals, Shams Azar score 1.0 per match, and the league average is only 1.75 goals. With a projected total of 1.95 goals, the 3.5 line offers a clearer edge than lower lines.

A half-time draw is the most likely outcome: Shams Azar went into the break level in 2 of 3 away matches, while Paykan did so in 2 of 4 home games. The visitors have yet to concede a first-half goal away from home, making it difficult to back the hosts to lead at the break, although Paykan were level at half-time in 4 of their last 5 matches. After the break, I give Shams Azar the edge: they average 1.00 goals and 1.33 points per away match, while Paykan score 0.75 goals and earn 0.25 points per home game, having lost 3 of 4. The visitors also average 0.67 second-half goals away from home, compared with Paykan's 0.25 at home. However, X/2 is not a clear favourite, as Paykan have averaged 1.4 points in their last 5 matches, while Shams Azar have managed only 0.8.