PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur: match statistics

Cambuur are more likely to win, although their away record of two draws and a defeat calls for caution. PEC Zwolle have lost all 3 of their home matches, scoring an average of just 0.33 goals and conceding as many as 4, while the visitors average 1.33 goals away from home. Cambuur’s advantage in chance creation is reflected in their away xG of 1.35, compared with the hosts’ 0.87 at home, as well as 4.33 shots on target per match versus 2.33. Zwolle have failed to score in 67% of their home matches, and their defence has allowed chances worth an average of 2.14 xG in those games. In their last 5 league matches, the hosts have conceded 15 goals and Cambuur 12, so the defensive frailties of both sides increase the risk of a draw despite the visitors’ advantage.

Cambuur have been involved in matches with both teams scoring in 100% of their away games, while PEC Zwolle have done so in 50% of their home matches. The visitors average 1.33 goals away from home, while the hosts concede as many as 3.25 at home; PEC, meanwhile, score 1.5 goals at home, against 2.0 conceded by Cambuur away. xG also points to chances at both ends: the hosts create opportunities worth an average of 1.17 goals, compared with 1.56 xG conceded by the visitors, while Cambuur record 1.35 xG against 1.73 conceded by PEC. In their last five matches, the two teams conceded 15 and 12 goals respectively, although PEC scored only 1.0 goal per match over that period, which slightly reduces confidence in the prediction. Even so, both sides' defensive weaknesses and Cambuur's failure to keep a clean sheet away from home point to each team scoring. This supports BTTS - Yes (Goal/Goal); BTTS - No would mean at least one team fails to score, not necessarily a 0-0 draw.

All previous meetings between the two teams have produced at least two goals, making Over 1.5 the strongest signal. PEC Zwolle concede an average of 3.25 goals at home, while Cambuur score 1.33 goals away and have found the net in every such match. Across their last five matches, the hosts conceded an average of 3.0 goals, while the visitors scored 1.8; 80% of matches for each team produced at least three goals. The 3.65-goal forecast also supports higher lines, but Over 1.5 offers a clearer edge because it requires just two goals.

The strongest first-half signal is PEC Zwolle’s weakness: the hosts were trailing at half-time in 3 of their 4 matches, conceding an average of 2.25 goals before the break, compared with 0.67 for Cambuur. PEC failed to lead at the break in any of their last five matches, while Cambuur led twice, strengthening the case for the visitors to have the advantage after 45 minutes. Cambuur could hold on to their lead, as PEC concede an average of 3.25 goals per match overall, compared with 2.00 for Cambuur. In their last five matches, the visitors scored an average of 1.8 goals, while the hosts conceded 3.0. However, this is not a pick without significant risk: Cambuur drew 2 of their 3 away matches and won none, while PEC average 1.25 goals in second halves. Despite the possibility of the hosts mounting a turnaround, their 3 defeats in 4 home matches point towards Cambuur leading at the break and at full-time.