PEC Zwolle vs Heracles: match statistics
PEC Zwolle vs Heracles: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
PEC Zwolle played Heracles in Eredivisie (Netherlands). The match was played on 3 May 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
PEC Zwolle: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Heracles: 0-1-4, 0.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
PEC Zwolle scores 1.32 and concedes 2.13 goals per match. Heracles scores 1.10 and concedes 2.55. League average: 3.17 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: PEC Zwolle 71%, Heracles 52%. Over 2.5: PEC Zwolle 65%, Heracles 71%. League level: BTTS 62%, Over 2.5 61%.
xG, shots and style
Heracles has higher xG: 1.24 vs 1.12. PEC Zwolle: 9.8 shots per match, Heracles: 11.1.
Match halves
PEC Zwolle: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 0.61. Heracles: half-time lead 19%, second-half goals 0.55.
Goals by minute
PEC Zwolle: 0-15 (10 goals). Heracles: 16-30 (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Eredivisie: 3.17 goals per match, BTTS 62%, Over 2.5 61%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 10.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
PEC Zwolle is the favorite: they sit 13th in the table versus Heracles in 18th, and at home they have won 47% of matches this season compared to the visitors’ just 7% away win rate. The hosts’ attack has scored 41 goals this season and 6 in the last 5 matches (1.2 per match), while Heracles have 34 goals this season and only 2 in the last 5 (0.4 per match), with conversion rates of 13% for Zwolle and 10% for Heracles. Defensively the visitors fare much worse: Heracles concede 3.00 goals on average away with an average xG against of 2.03, whereas Zwolle concede 1.27 at home with xG against 1.70, indicating Heracles allow more dangerous opportunities. Additionally Heracles have zero clean sheets away (0%) and fail to score in 47% of away matches, while Zwolle have 27% clean sheets and fail to score in 27% of home games, which increases the hosts’ chances of gaining points. Considering form (points per game in the last 5: Zwolle 1.0 vs Heracles 0.2), the edge in average on-target shots at home (3.6 vs 2.73) and higher home xG for Zwolle (1.17 vs 0.96 for the visitors away), I predict a home victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I project BTTS at 75% (No BTTS 25%) and recommend the 'Yes' bet. Defensive context: PEC Zwolle concedes an average of 2.13 goals per match this season, Heracles 3.00; in the last 5 fixtures the home side conceded 3.0 on average while the visitors conceded 2.8. The league features a high share of matches with both teams scoring — 62% with an average of 3.18 goals per game — and seasonal BTTS rates are 50% for Zwolle and 53% for Heracles, which provides a solid backdrop for the forecast. Offensively Zwolle creates more chances: xG 1.50 versus 0.96 for Heracles and 4.81 shots on target versus 2.73, and additionally Heracles has 0% clean sheets this season, which significantly increases the likelihood that both teams will score. Both teams also have a high share of Over 2.5 goals matches (63% and 80%) and PEC registered BTTS in 80% of their last 5 games, so the strongest signal from the data is 'Yes' (BTTS - Yes).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Both teams have a very high percentage of matches over 1.5 goals: PEC Zwolle 88% and Heracles 100%, averaging 94%, which strongly favors Over 1.5. The xG model shows 1.50 for Zwolle and 0.96 for Heracles with xG against 1.83 (Zwolle) and 2.03 (Heracles), yielding expected goals of 1.77 for the home side and 1.40 for the visitors, totaling 3.17 goals. Additionally, Zwolle averages 4.81 shots on target per match, Heracles 2.73, and both teams have conceded 66 and 79 goals this season respectively, indicating defensive vulnerability. Season-long Over 2.5 rates are 63% (Zwolle) and 80% (Heracles) — about 72% on average — so the 2.5 line also has a strong case, but the strongest and most likely signal is Over 1.5 (94%). Therefore I recommend backing Over at 1.5 as the most reliable pick, while recognizing Over 2.5 as a secondary strong value.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
I identified the 1/1 scenario (home team leading at half-time and winning the match) as the most likely outcome. Heracles concedes on average 3.0 goals per match and trailed at half-time in 13 of 15 away games (87%). PEC Zwolle posts a higher xG of 1.5 versus the visitors’ 0.96 and has a clear advantage in shots on target, 4.81 to 2.73, indicating more genuine goalscoring opportunities. At half-time, hosts average 0.69 goals and visitors 0.4; Zwolle led at the break in 4 of 16 matches (25%) and were level at half-time in 7 of 16 (44%), which collectively points to a half-time advantage for the home side. The second half often yields goals (over 0.5 in 88% of Zwolle’s matches and 100% of Heracles’ matches), but Heracles have not won in their last five matches (0 wins) and have a low scoring average over that span — 0.4 — so the risk of a turnaround is limited. For these reasons, the strongest signal from the data is a Zwolle lead at the break and carrying that lead through to full-time (1/1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| PEC Zwolle | Heracles | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 36% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
PEC Zwolle is 400% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - PEC Zwolle · 0.2 pts / match - Heracles
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
PEC Zwolle is 20% better for: goals scored per match.
1.32 goals / match - PEC Zwolle · 1.1 goals / match - Heracles
PEC Zwolle is 20% better for: goals conceded per match.
2.13 goals / match - PEC Zwolle · 2.55 goals / match - Heracles
PEC Zwolle scores in 84% of matches (26 of 31 matches), while Heracles keeps a clean sheet in 6% (2 of 31 matches).
Heracles scores in 55% of matches (17 of 31 matches), while PEC Zwolle keeps a clean sheet in 16% (5 of 31 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - PEC Zwolle
Over / Under - Heracles
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
PEC Zwolle is 52% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.23 pts / match - PEC Zwolle · 0.81 pts / match - Heracles
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
PEC Zwolle - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 26%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Heracles - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 19% of matches and wins 16%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 2.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 0% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -7 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 0% |
| No goal | 60% | 100% |
| Goal difference | -4 | -8 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (10 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (17). Late-goal balance (76-90): -11 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (8 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (18). Late-goal balance (76-90): -12 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
PEC Zwolle
Heracles
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Eredivisie).
Teams vs league
| PEC Zwolle | Liga | Heracles | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.45 | 3.17 | ▲ 3.65 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 71% | 62% | ▼ 52% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 65% | 61% | ▲ 71% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 16% | 20% | ▼ 6% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 84% | 81% | ▲ 84% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 81% | 84% | ▲ 94% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: PEC Zwolle 0 - 0 - 1 Heracles. Average goals 10.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of PEC Zwolle vs Heracles?
The Eredivisie match finished PEC Zwolle 1:0 Heracles. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before PEC Zwolle vs Heracles?
PEC Zwolle score 1.32 goals per game on average and Heracles 1.10. The Eredivisie average is 3.17 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 61% of games. Both teams score in 71% of PEC Zwolle's matches and 52% of Heracles's.
What form are PEC Zwolle and Heracles in?
Over the last 5 games PEC Zwolle have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Heracles 0-1-4 (0.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for PEC Zwolle vs Heracles?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.