PEC Zwolle vs NEC: match statistics

NEC have a clear advantage in away matches: they won their only game on the road so far, scoring an average of 4 goals while conceding just 1. PEC Zwolle have lost all of their home matches to date, failing to score a single goal and conceding an average of 2 goals per game. The difference in chance creation is significant, with NEC averaging 2.55 xG away from home, while Zwolle manage just 0.92 xG at home and additionally allow opponents an xG of 2.54. The visitors average 21 shots, including 10 on target, whereas the hosts record just 7 attempts and 2 shots on target. Recent form also favors NEC, who have scored 8 goals in their last five matches, while Zwolle have lost 4 of their last 5 games and conceded 10 goals during that run.

The BTTS signal is clear, as both teams recorded this outcome in 100% of their seasonal matches, while neither side kept a clean sheet. NEC possesses considerable attacking strength: they average 4.0 goals, 10.0 shots on target per match, and have an xG of 2.55. PEC Zwolle have scored just 1.0 goal on average so far, but NEC’s defence has also failed to keep a clean sheet, while the hosts generate a high 2.79 xG and as many as 27 shots per match. The hosts’ recent form lowers confidence in the pick, as they scored only 0.6 goals across their last five matches and BTTS landed in 20% of cases; however, they also conceded 2.0 goals while allowing opponents 2.29 xG. NEC recorded BTTS in 80% of their last five matches and should create plenty of chances, while the combination of their attack and the absence of clean sheets on both sides still favours goals for both teams—BTTS - Yes / Goal/Goal.

NEC have a clearly superior attacking profile: over their last 5 matches, they averaged 2.26 xG, while PEC Zwolle allowed opponents 2.29 xG. The hosts scored just 0.6 goals per game during this period, but NEC conceded 1.4 goals, giving Zwolle a realistic chance of finding the net. Across their last five matches, both teams scored and conceded an average of 2.8 goals per game, while 80% of NEC’s matches ended with at least three goals. In addition, the league average stands at 3.75 goals, and Over 1.5 goals landed in 100% of the matches played by both teams so far. Over 1.5 goals is therefore the strongest selection, as even with PEC’s lower finishing efficiency, NEC’s attacking power should significantly increase the probability of at least two goals.

NEC have a clear advantage in the seasonal results: they score an average of 4.0 goals per match, concede 1.0, and have won 100% of their games, while PEC Zwolle score 1.0 goal, concede 2.0, and have lost every match. In the relevant seasonal head-to-head data, the visitors were leading at the break in 100% of matches, averaging 1.0 goal scored and conceding none before half-time; PEC were trailing at the break in 100% of these games, conceding an average of 2.0 goals. NEC’s advantage is particularly evident after the interval, as they score an average of 3.0 goals, while PEC have conceded as many as 1.8 goals per match in the second halves of their last five games. Although current form suggests more frequent half-time draws, with PEC level at half-time in their last five matches and NEC in 40% of theirs, the visitors’ significantly higher efficiency — 19% compared with 4% — supports the scenario of NEC leading at the break and securing a full-time victory.