Pelikan Łowicz vs Lomza: match statistics

Lomża holds a slight offensive edge: they scored 13 goals in the last 5 matches and won 4 of them, while Pelikan scored 10 goals and has a record of 3 wins and 2 draws. The difference in points efficiency is marginal – Lomża averages 2.4 points per game over the last 5 matches, Pelikan 2.2, indicating a slightly better form for the visitors. Defensively Pelikan is marginally superior, conceding 3 goals in the last 5 matches versus Lomża’s 4 conceded, which may offset some of the offensive advantage. Since detailed home and away statistics in the provided data are mostly zero, the assessment of home advantage is limited; on this basis I forecast a narrow victory for the visitors. I estimate probabilities as: 45% away win, 30% home win and 25% draw, based on the comparison 13 vs 10 goals, 4 vs 3 wins and PPG 2.4 vs 2.2.

Seasonal statistics are largely unavailable (many values = 0), so the forecast is based mainly on the last 5 matches. In the last 5 fixtures both teams scored in only 40% of cases (2 of 5 matches), which provides a baseline ~40% for BTTS. Pelikan in the last 5 matches scored 10 and conceded 3 (avg 2.0 scored and 0.6 conceded per match) with offensive xG 1.91 and xG against 0.3, indicating a solid defense; Łomża has 13 scored and 4 conceded (2.6 and 0.8 per match) with xG 1.99 and xG against 0.83, so they create chances but also allow opponents more opportunities. Considering Pelikan’s low xG against (0.3) and only 3 conceded goals in 5 matches and the low BTTS frequency (40% vs 40%), the 'No' (no BTTS / clean sheet expected) scenario is stronger, therefore I assess probabilities as 40% for 'Yes' (BTTS - Yes) and 60% for 'No' (No Goal).

Analysis of the last 5 matches shows Pelikan Łowicz averaged 2.0 goals scored and 0.6 conceded, while Łomża averaged 2.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded; in raw numbers that’s 10 goals scored and 3 conceded by Pelikan and 13 scored and 4 conceded by Łomża. Average xG in those 5 games are 1.91 for Pelikan and 1.99 for Łomża, with xG against of 0.30 for Pelikan and 0.83 for Łomża. Estimating expected goals as the mean of a team’s offensive xG and the opponent’s defensive xG yields roughly 1.37 expected goals for the home side and 1.15 for the away side, totalling 2.52 expected goals per match. A Poisson model at this total suggests about a 72% probability for Over 1.5 goals, about 46% for Over 2.5, and about 25% for Over 3.5. The strongest signal from the data is therefore the Over at 1.5, since 72% is a clear edge compared to the moderate 46% for Over 2.5 and only 25% for Over 3.5.

Half-time statistics clearly favor Łomża: in the last 5 matches they led at the break in 67% of games and averaged 1.33 goals before half-time while conceding none (0.0), whereas Pelikan had 0% leads at the break and 0.0 average goals by half-time. Over the full match the visitors also look stronger offensively — Łomża’s average goals in the last 5 matches is 2.6 with 0.8 conceded, compared to Pelikan’s 2.0 scored and 0.6 conceded, and the win percentage is 80% for the visitors versus 60% for the hosts. Additionally, Łomża scored a total of 4 first-half goals in those 5 matches and has 100% clean halves at HT, indicating the ability to control the first half. Based on these numbers I prefer the scenario of Łomża leading at the break and winning the match (2/2) with a probability of 45%, with a significant alternative of half-time draw and eventual away win (X/2) at approximately 20% and a low share for turnaround scenarios.