Pelikan Łowicz vs Swit: match statistics

Pelikan Łowicz remain unbeaten at home, winning 67% of their home matches and averaging 2.00 goals per game, while Świt score just 0.67 times away from home. The hosts are also far more consistent in attack, having failed to score in none of their home fixtures, whereas the visitors have drawn a blank in 67% of away matches. Świt do create plenty of chances, however, recording an average xG of 2.45 and 6.5 shots on target per game, so their low goal tally is primarily down to poor finishing at a rate of 5%. The visitors’ defence looks solid, conceding just 0.33 goals away from home and keeping a clean sheet in 67% of such matches, which significantly increases the likelihood of a draw. Pelikan nevertheless hold a slight edge thanks to their more effective home attack and a run of two wins and one draw in their last three home matches.

The stronger signal for BTTS - No comes from Świt’s defensive record: the visitors concede an average of just 0.33 goals per match and keep a clean sheet in 67% of their games. Pelikan has indeed recorded both teams scoring in 67% of matches, but in their last five outings they scored only 1.0 goal per game, with 1.55 xG. On the other hand, Świt have averaged just 0.67 goals scored in the competition and failed to score in as many as 67% of matches, which clearly increases the likelihood of the hosts keeping a clean sheet. The visitors’ higher xG of 2.45 and 20.0 shots per match suggest attacking potential, but their conversion rate is only 5%, so this does not offset their scoring problems. BTTS - No is more likely because the most realistic scenario is that at least one team, particularly Świt, fails to find the net.

Świt have a solid away defensive record, conceding an average of just 0.33 goals and keeping a clean sheet in 67% of such matches. Pelikan have averaged 2.33 goals at home, but their average has dropped to 1.0 over their last five matches, with 1.55 xG per game. The visitors create plenty of chances, as evidenced by 2.45 xG and 20.0 shots per away match, but their conversion rate is only 5%, so a high-scoring game is not guaranteed. Świt have seen fewer than 3.5 goals in all of their away matches so far, while the same has applied to 67% of Pelikan’s home games. Therefore, a maximum of three goals has the strongest statistical backing. The projected total of 2.50 goals points to value in the Under 3.5 goals market.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and a draw at full-time, as Świt were level at the break in all three of their away matches so far, while a half-time draw occurred in 50% of their last five fixtures. Pelikan also tend to start cautiously: in three of their last five matches, they went into the break level, scoring just 0.2 goals per game in the first half. Świt have conceded an average of only 0.33 goals per away match, kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games, and as many as 67% of their matches ended in a draw. The hosts have a higher seasonal scoring record, averaging 2.33 goals per match compared with Świt’s 0.67, but current form is more balanced: Pelikan have recently averaged 1.0 goal per game, while Świt have averaged 1.4. Pelikan are usually more dangerous after the break, but Świt have not conceded a single second-half goal in their last five matches, strengthening the case for a draw to be maintained until full-time.