Pelikan Łowicz vs Wigry Suwałki: match statistics

Pelikan Łowicz hold a slight edge based on their home form: they have won 67% of their home matches and are yet to lose one, scoring an average of 2 goals per game. The hosts also create slightly better chances than Wigry do away from home, with an average xG of 1.74 compared with the visitors’ 1.50. However, Wigry pose a threat: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 13 goals in that span, and concede an average of just 0.83 goals away from home. That defensive efficiency contrasts with their opponents’ away xG of 1.78, suggesting Pelikan could create chances despite the visitors’ strong defensive record. Both teams’ unbeaten records at home and away respectively increase the likelihood of a draw, but Pelikan’s advantage in home scoring and chance quality tips the forecast slightly in their favour.

Both teams average 1.83 goals per match this season, and Wigry have scored in every match they have played so far. Pelikan have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their home matches, which is the strongest argument against BTTS - Yes; however, Wigry have averaged 2.6 goals across their last 5 matches. The hosts’ chances of scoring are supported by their average xG of 1.40 and the 1.78 xG Wigry concede on average. Although the teams’ season-long BTTS rates differ considerably—33% for Pelikan and 83% for Wigry—both sides recorded a 60% rate across their last 5 matches. Therefore, I consider both teams to score slightly more likely, despite the hosts’ solid defence.

All of Wigry’s matches so far have gone over 1.5 goals, compared with 50% of Pelikan’s matches. Both teams average 1.83 goals per match this season, while in their last five games Wigry have scored 2.6 goals per match to Pelikan’s 1.8, supporting a scenario with at least two goals. Caution on higher lines is warranted, as only 33% of each team’s matches have finished over 2.5 goals, and Pelikan have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their matches. Therefore, Over 1.5 is the strongest pick: it requires two goals without assuming a more open game, for which the results so far offer weaker support.

Wigry led at the break in 4 of their last 5 matches, compared with Pelikan in 3 of 5, giving the visitors a slight edge in the first-half forecast. Wigry also won 4 of their last 5 games, scoring an average of 2.6 goals, while Pelikan won 3 and averaged 1.8 goals. Over the full period analysed, the visitors remained unbeaten and conceded an average of 0.83 goals per match, compared with 1.0 conceded by the hosts. There is significant risk attached to this pick: Pelikan did not trail at half-time in any of their 5 home matches, and kept a clean sheet in 67% of them. Nevertheless, Wigry’s stronger recent form both before the break and at full-time makes an away lead at the break that is maintained until the end the single most likely scenario.