Pendikspor vs Çorum Belediyespor: match statistics

I predict a home win: Pendikspor score on average 1.76 goals per game at home and concede only 0.65, while Çorum score 1.41 and concede 1.41 away. The hosts have a clear defensive and efficiency edge — 47% of home games end in a clean sheet and their home goal difference is +19 versus 0 for Çorum on the road. In terms of chance quality the teams are similar: average xG is 1.59 for Pendikspor vs 1.50 for Çorum, and average shots on target are 5.18 vs 4.88. In the last 5 matches the hosts scored 9 goals and went 2-2-1 (1.6 points per game), while the visitors scored 7 goals and went 3-1-1 (2.0 points per game), indicating better points form for the visitors. Nevertheless, higher host efficiency (conversion 13% vs 11%) and the defensive advantage lead me to assess Pendikspor win at 60%, draw 22%, Çorum win 18%.

Both teams have seasonal BTTS rates: Pendikspor 53% and Çorum 59%, and in the last 5 matches both sides recorded BTTS at 60%, which is a clear signal favoring the 'both teams to score' option. Over the season Pendikspor scores 1.76 and concedes 0.71, while Çorum scores 1.41 and concedes 1.41; their xG are 1.67 (Pendik) and 1.50 (Çorum), with xG conceded 0.87 and 0.97 respectively, indicating both teams generate legitimate scoring chances. Shot and accuracy stats confirm offensive potential: Pendik averages 14.24 shots and 4.82 on target with a 12% conversion, Çorum 12.71 shots and 4.88 on target with an 11% conversion. A counterweight is Pendik's 41% clean sheets (versus Çorum's 18%), however Pendik has been conceding 1.4 goals in the last 5 matches while Çorum concedes 0.8, so the recent trend increases the likelihood of goal exchange. Considering the seasonal 53%/59%, the strong 60% form in the last 5, and xG and shot metrics, I assess BTTS probability at 62% vs 38% and select "yes" as the preferred tip.

Based on xG and defensive metrics I estimate total expected goals at approximately 2.51: (1.67 + 0.97)/2 = 1.32 for Pendikspor and (1.50 + 0.87)/2 = 1.19 for Çorum. Both teams have a high share of matches over 1.5 goals — seasonOver15 76% for the home side and 76% for the away side — and additionally seasonOver0.5 is 88% and 100%, which strongly supports at least two goals in the match. The 2.5 line is borderline: seasonOver25 is 41% for the home team and 59% for the away team (average ~50%), and the combined xG of 2.51 gives a slight edge to Over 2.5, hence a 55% lean to Over. The 3.5 line looks unlikely — seasonOver35 29% and 35% (average ~32%) — so Under 3.5 has a clear advantage. Considering also that Pendikspor concedes on average 0.71 goals and has 41% clean sheets, and Çorum has 59% BTTS matches, the strongest and most reliable signal from the data is Over 1.5.

Pendikspor led at the break in 6 of their home matches (35%), the score was level at half-time in 9 matches (53%), and the visitors were ahead in only 2 matches (12%), so a draw at the break appears to be the most common half-time state. The hosts have 71% clean sheets at half-time versus Çorum's 47%, indicating a low number of first-half goals. After the break Pendikspor score on average 1.06 goals and concede 0.41, while Çorum score 0.65 and concede 0.76, meaning the home-side advantage emerges mainly in the second half. Additionally the hosts’ xG is 1.67 versus the visitors’ 1.50 and their average points at home are 2.18 versus 1.53 for Çorum, therefore the strongest signal is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1).