Pendikspor vs Ümraniyespor: match statistics

Pendikspor hold a slight edge in the quality of chances at home: they average 1.93 xG per match, while Ümraniyespor allow opponents as much as 2.21 xG away from home. The hosts also register more shots on target (7 to 5) and, with possession levels being almost identical at 55% to 54%, should more frequently push the game into the opposition penalty area. Ümraniyespor have not won any of their 4 matches this season, concede an average of 2 goals per game away from home and have suffered defeats in 50% of their away appearances. Both teams score 1.5 goals on average at their respective venues, but Pendikspor remain unbeaten at home and have drawn both matches, which also increases the likelihood of a share of the points. The hosts' weaker recent run, with 11 goals conceded in five matches, limits confidence in the selection, but the visitors' defensive problems support a Pendikspor win.

The BTTS - Yes tip is primarily supported by current form, as both teams recorded this outcome in 80% of their last 5 matches. Pendikspor scored an average of 1.4 goals during this period but conceded as many as 2.2, while Ümraniyespor scored 1.0 goal and allowed opponents to score 1.8. The visitors have failed to keep a clean sheet in any match this season, and their high average xG against of 2.21 clearly increases the hosts’ chances of scoring. Ümraniyespor also creates more in attack, with an average xG of 1.61 and 5.0 shots on target per match, compared with Pendikspor’s 1.22 xG and 4.5 shots on target. Although the hosts have scored just 0.5 goals per match in the season data, the visitors’ weak defence and both teams’ regular tendency to concede goals provide stronger support for a goal from each side.

The latest form of both teams points to higher scoring potential than their short-term home-and-away statistics suggest: Pendikspor have scored 1.4 goals and conceded 2.2 over their last 5 matches, while Ümraniyespor have averaged 1.0 and 1.8, respectively. In both cases, 3 of their last 5 matches went over the 2.5-goal line, while both teams scored in as many as 80% of those games. The xG profile also supports goal-scoring opportunities, with the hosts averaging 1.22 xG against Ümraniyespor’s 2.21 xG conceded, while the visitors generate 1.61 xG. Pendikspor have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their home matches, but the visitors’ defence have failed to record a single such game, clearly increasing the hosts’ chances of scoring. The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as the projected total of 2.75 goals and both sides’ poor recent defensive form give this line a clearer edge than the more demanding Over 2.5.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Pendikspor win, as the hosts were level at the break in 2 of their 2 home matches so far, while Ümraniyespor were level at half-time in 60% of their last five games. Pendikspor have averaged 1.4 goals across their last five appearances, whereas Ümraniyespor’s opponents have conceded as many as 1.8 goals per match. After the interval, the hosts have averaged 2.0 total goals in their matches over the last five games, while their opponents have failed to win any of the last five second halves. The visitors’ defence looks particularly vulnerable, conceding an average of 2.0 goals over the season, with an xG against of 2.21. Ümraniyespor can pose a threat, averaging 5.0 shots on target and an xG of 1.61, which is why a full-time draw and a visitors’ win after the break still retain significant probability.