Penybont vs Caernarfon Town: match statistics
Statistical analysis indicates a very evenly matched clash between the two teams. Penybont sits in 3rd place and holds home advantage, yet their recent form is concerning – only 1 win in the last 5 matches and a streak of 4 draws. Caernarfon Town, in 4th position, displays better away form (45% away wins) and higher scoring efficiency (1.91 goals on average per away match vs 1.36 for the hosts at home). A key factor is the identical average possession (52%) and similar xG values, suggesting a balance of power. Considering Penybont's high number of home draws (27%) and Caernarfon's away draws (36%), as well as the hosts' recent streak of draws, a sharing of points appears to be the most probable scenario.
Penybont vs Caernarfon Town: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Penybont played Caernarfon Town in Welsh Premier League (Wales). The match was played on 24 January 2026. Final score: 0:0.
Current form
Penybont: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match. Caernarfon Town: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Penybont scores 1.64 and concedes 1.41 goals per match. Caernarfon Town scores 2.00 and concedes 1.45. League average: 3.13 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Penybont 45%, Caernarfon Town 73%. Over 2.5: Penybont 45%, Caernarfon Town 64%. League level: BTTS 53%, Over 2.5 59%.
xG, shots and style
Penybont has higher xG: 1.56 vs 1.54. Penybont: 10.9 shots per match, Caernarfon Town: 12.3.
Match halves
Penybont: half-time lead 23%, second-half goals 1.09. Caernarfon Town: half-time lead 27%, second-half goals 1.36.
Goals by minute
Penybont: 46-60 (10 goals). Caernarfon Town: 61-75 (11 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Welsh Premier League: 3.13 goals per match, BTTS 53%, Over 2.5 59%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-1. Average goals 2.50, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Statistical analysis indicates a very evenly matched clash between the two teams. Penybont sits in 3rd place and holds home advantage, yet their recent form is concerning – only 1 win in the last 5 matches and a streak of 4 draws. Caernarfon Town, in 4th position, displays better away form (45% away wins) and higher scoring efficiency (1.91 goals on average per away match vs 1.36 for the hosts at home). A key factor is the identical average possession (52%) and similar xG values, suggesting a balance of power. Considering Penybont's high number of home draws (27%) and Caernarfon's away draws (36%), as well as the hosts' recent streak of draws, a sharing of points appears to be the most probable scenario.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Penybont | Caernarfon Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 40% | 42% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Penybont is 20% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Penybont · 1 pts / match - Caernarfon Town
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Caernarfon Town is 22% better for: goals scored per match.
1.64 goals / match - Penybont · 2 goals / match - Caernarfon Town
Penybont scores in 73% of matches (16 of 22 matches), while Caernarfon Town keeps a clean sheet in 14% (3 of 22 matches).
Caernarfon Town scores in 86% of matches (19 of 22 matches), while Penybont keeps a clean sheet in 36% (8 of 22 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Penybont
Over / Under - Caernarfon Town
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Penybont - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 23% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Caernarfon Town - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 27% of matches and wins 41%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (10 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (11 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Penybont
Caernarfon Town
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Welsh Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Penybont | Liga | Caernarfon Town | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 3.05 | 3.13 | ▲ 3.45 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 45% | 53% | ▲ 73% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 45% | 59% | ▲ 64% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 36% | 27% | ▼ 14% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 59% | 77% | • 77% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 82% | 76% | ▲ 91% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Penybont 1 - 0 - 1 Caernarfon Town. Average goals 2.50, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Penybont vs Caernarfon Town?
The Welsh Premier League match finished Penybont 0:0 Caernarfon Town. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Penybont and Caernarfon Town?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Penybont won 1, Caernarfon Town won 1 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Penybont vs Caernarfon Town?
Penybont score 1.64 goals per game on average and Caernarfon Town 2.00. The Welsh Premier League average is 3.13 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 59% of games. Both teams score in 45% of Penybont's matches and 73% of Caernarfon Town's.
What form are Penybont and Caernarfon Town in?
Over the last 5 games Penybont have a 1-3-1 record (1.20 points per game) and Caernarfon Town 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Penybont vs Caernarfon Town?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Penybont vs Caernarfon Town: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.