Pérez Zeledón vs Cartaginés: match statistics

I back Cartaginés to win ('2') based on markedly superior recent form. Over the last 5 matches Cartaginés have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, while Pérez Zeledón have 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses. Offensively Cartaginés have scored 10 goals in their last 5 fixtures (2.0 per game) versus Pérez’s 5 goals (1.0 per game). Defensively the gap is even greater — Cartaginés have conceded 3 goals in their last 5 matches (0.6 per game) while Pérez have conceded 11 (2.2 per game). This efficiency differential is reflected in points: Cartaginés average 2.0 points per game over the last 5, Pérez 0.4. In the season Cartaginés sit at 1-0-0 with a 3:1 goal record compared to Pérez at 0-0-1 and 1:5; therefore I assign the visitors a 65% chance to win, 20% for a draw and 15% for the home side.

In the Costa Rica league BTTS occurs in 80% of matches and the average goals per game is 3.4, favoring both-teams-to-score scenarios. Pérez Zeledón at home has a seasonal BTTS of 100% and a recent BTTS of 60% in the last 5 matches; in those five games they scored 5 goals (1.0 per game) and conceded 11 goals (2.2 per game), with a seasonal xG for attack of 1.92 (last 5 -> attack xG 1.26) and seasonal xG against 0.77 (last 5 -> 1.99). Cartaginés in the last 5 matches has BTTS 40%, scored 10 goals (2.0 per game) and conceded 3 (0.6 per game), with recent attack xG 1.83 and xG against 0.83, indicating the visitors can find the net. The key comparison is that the hosts concede on average 2.2 goals in the last 5 matches while the visitors score on average 2.0, so the real chance of Cartaginés scoring is high, and Pérez Zeledón’s 100% home BTTS plus the league’s 80% further increase the probability of both teams scoring. Based on this, I tip 'BTTS - Yes' at approximately 70% versus 30% for 'No Goal'.

Pérez Zeledón’s home season stats show an average of 3.0 goals per home match and 1.92 xG per home game (seasonScoredAVG_home = 3.0, xg_for_avg_home = 1.92), with 100% of their home fixtures going Over 2.5 (seasonOver25Percentage_home = 100.0). Cartaginés’s away data in the dataset is partially incomplete (many fields = 0.0), but in their last 5 matches Cartaginés scored 10 goals and averaged 1.83 xG (gf_last5_away = 10.0, last5_xg_for_avg_overall_away = 1.83), roughly 2.0 goals per game. Combining the last 5 matches: the home side have last5 attack xG of 1.26 against the visitors’ last5 defensive xG of 0.83, yielding an expected ~1.05 goals for Pérez Zeledón; conversely the visitors have 1.83 attack xG versus the home defense xG of 1.99, giving ~1.91 goals for Cartaginés. In total I expect about 2.96 goals in the match (1.05 + 1.91 = 2.96), which comfortably exceeds the 1.5 line and slightly exceeds 2.5, while remaining below 3.5. Therefore the strongest signal from the data is a play on Over 1.5, with Over 2.5 receiving moderate support (seasonOver25Percentage_home = 100.0, league_seasonAVG_overall = 3.4, league_seasonBTTSPercentage = 80.0).

Pérez Zeledón has strong home statistics: they score on average 3.0 goals per match this season, have a 100.0% win rate and have led at the break in 1 of 1 matches (100.0%), with an average of 1.0 first-half goals. Their xG is 1.92 versus 0.00 for Cartaginés in the provided seasonal data, and the hosts average 7.0 shots on target and 18.0 shots per match, indicating an offensive advantage and a higher probability of a goal before half-time. Cartaginés shows better recent form over the last five matches (60.0% wins, i.e. 3 of 5) and averages 2.0 goals per match in that sample, but the seasonal away statistics for the visitors are empty (values 0), increasing uncertainty around their xG potential. Given that the hosts lead at the break in 100.0% of season records and have 1.0 HT goals on average, the most likely scenario is Pérez Zeledón leading at half-time and maintaining the win to full-time (1/1). Therefore I assign a 52% probability to 1/1 as the primary signal, with X/1 as the strongest alternative (16%) and smaller probabilities for draws and turnarounds.