Pergolettese vs Lecco: match statistics

Lecco is the clear favorite: they sit 3rd in the table versus Pergolettese in 17th, with 18 wins and 47 goals scored this season, while the hosts have 9 wins and 34 goals. The form gap is evident over the last five matches — Lecco have scored 11 goals, won 3 of 5 and average 2 points per game, whereas Pergolettese have scored 4 goals, won only 1 match and average 1 point per game. The visitors’ defensive edge is crucial: Lecco concede 0.83 goals away on average and keep a clean sheet in 39% of away games, while Pergolettese concede 1.33 goals at home and have only 17% clean sheets; the hosts have failed to score in 44% of home matches, compared to guests in 11% of away fixtures. In terms of chance quality, Pergolettese generate higher xG at home (1.45) than Lecco away (1.27), but Lecco convert better (14% conversion rate vs 9% for the hosts) and register more shots on target per game (3.56 vs 3.06), giving the visitors an efficiency advantage in front of goal. Considering this, I back a Lecco win: 62% chance for an away win, 23% for a draw and 15% for Pergolettese.

Pergolettese has a seasonal BTTS - Yes rate of only 26% and failed to score in 42% of matches; in the last 5 games they have scored just 4 goals (0.8 per match), which significantly limits the chance the hosts will break through. Lecco, on the other hand, has a seasonal BTTS of 50% and a 60% BTTS in the last 5 matches, scoring 11 goals in those five games (2.2 per match) and failing to score in only 11% of matches, so the visitors are a realistic candidate to score. Additionally, Pergolettese keep a clean sheet in 47% of matches, while the league average is 60% of matches with a clean sheet; the low frequency of home matches over 2.5 goals (37%) points to fewer overall goals. Looking at xG, Pergolettese generate 1.39 xG per match, while Lecco concedes 1.59 xG on average, however Pergolettese have an 11% finishing rate and in the last 5 matches had 1.35 xG with an actual 0.8 goals, which shows a finishing problem. Given Pergolettese’s offensive weakness and the high clean sheet share for the hosts, I tip 'No Goal' (both teams not to score) as more likely — 65% vs 35% for 'BTTS - Yes'.

The model projects a total of 2.77 expected goals: Pergolettese 1.41 and Lecco 1.36, calculated as a blend of season xG and form over the last 5 matches. Season attacking xG are 1.39 for Pergolettese and 1.27 for Lecco, while xG conceded are 1.19 (Pergolettese) and 1.59 (Lecco); combining these pairs yields base values of ~1.49 and ~1.23 before form adjustment. The last-5-games adjustment (Pergolettese 0.8 goals on average and 4 goals in the last 5; Lecco 2.2 on average and 11 goals) reduces the home projection to 1.41 and raises the away to 1.36. Season rates show Over 1.5 in 53% of Pergolettese matches and 56% of Lecco matches, and Over 2.5 in 37% and 28%; however the last 5 matches for both teams are Over 2.5 at 60% each, which combined with a summed xG of 2.77 implies roughly a 76% probability for Over 1.5 and ~52% for Over 2.5. Consequently the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (76% vs 24%), so I recommend backing Over 1.5; the 2.5 line is more balanced (52%/48%), and Over 3.5 remains unlikely (30%).

The most important figure is Lecco’s first-half form: in the last 5 matches they led at the break in 100% of games (5/5), scoring an average of 1.6 goals by half-time, while Pergolettese averaged only 0.2 goals in that period. This early advantage translates into full-time results — Lecco won 60% of the last 5 matches (3/5), Pergolettese only 20% (1/5), and across the season Lecco has a slightly higher points average (1.78 vs 1.68). Over the season Pergolettese led at the break in 10 matches (53%), but in the last 5 this was only 20% (1/5) and in 60% of those recent matches they were losing at half-time, showing a turnaround in form. Additionally Pergolettese generate more chances (11.28 shots and 1.39 xG on average vs Lecco’s 9.56 shots and 1.27 xG), so they have a realistic opportunity to recover after the break. Considering Lecco’s 100% rate of leading at the break (last 5 matches) and 60% win rate over that period, the most likely HT/FT scenario is 2/2 (Lecco leads at half-time and wins), with 2/X (losing the lead or drawing) and X/2 as the main alternatives.