Pergolettese vs Pro Patria: match statistics

Pergolettese holds a clear advantage over Pro Patria in the context of home matches. The hosts win 31% of their home games and have a positive xG differential (1.41 to 1.37), indicating superior chance creation. Pro Patria perform very poorly in away matches – with only a 6% win rate, 69% losses, and a dreadful goal difference (-15). The visitors concede an average of 1.63 goals per away game while scoring only 0.69, which, given the hosts' effectiveness, should result in a home victory. Recent form over the last five matches (1.4 PPG for Pergolettese compared to 0.6 PPG for Pro Patria) further confirms the home side's superiority. However, the visitors' high draw percentage (25%) and Pergolettese's poor scoring efficiency at home (50% FTS%) justify a significant probability of a points share.

Goal data indicates an elevated risk of one team failing to score: Pergolettese averages 0.82 goals at home, while Pro Patria averages only 0.69 away. High percentages of matches without a goal scored (FTS: 47% for the hosts, 50% for the visitors) suggest the BTTS scenario is often blocked by inefficiency. Although both defenses statistically concede a lot (GA/goals conceded AVG: 2.0 for hosts and 1.63 for guests) and have low clean sheet rates (18–19%), Pergolettese has improved its defensive play in the last 5 matches (1.0 goal conceded on average). The seasonal BTTS rate is below the league average (47% vs 49% for hosts and 44% vs 49% for guests), which slightly strengthens the 'no' option. Additionally, low attacking productivity (SOT 3.0 vs 2.13 and conversion 8% on both sides) favors 1:0/0:1 or 0:0 type results.

The goal model indicates a moderately high-scoring match (xG: 1.27 vs 1.11, xGA: 1.61 vs 1.84), resulting in approximately 2.60 total goals. However, both teams have low average goals scored (0.82 and 0.69) and high failed-to-score rates (FTS 47% and 50%), which limits the risk of a very high-scoring outcome. The seasonal profile supports a goal ceiling: Over 3.5 occurs in only 41% of Pergolettese's matches and 25% of Pro Patria's (meaning Under 3.5 in 59% and 75% respectively). Pergolettese's last 5 matches show only 20% Over 2.5 and a clearly improved defense (1.0 goal conceded per match), further reducing the chances for 4+ goals. Therefore, the safest pick is Under 3.5, as it combines statistical advantage with the low frequency of very high scores.

The strongest signal for half-time is a draw: both teams often draw at HT (Pergolettese 41%, Pro Patria 44%), with low first-half goal production (scoredAVGHT 0.24 vs 0.25), very high clean sheet rates at HT (76% and 81%), and minimal BTTS at HT (6% and 13%). After the break, the probability of a decisive outcome increases, as the second halves are significantly more goal-heavy (over 0.5 in 2HG: 82% vs 69%), favoring a potential late-game turnaround. In the overall match context, the hosts have an edge in quality of chances and activity (xG 1.27 vs 1.11; shots 10.29 vs 8.38; SOT 3.0 vs 2.13), while the visitors are the weakest in terms of results (PPG 0.44; defeats 69%). The recent 5-match trend also supports the hosts (PPG 1.4 vs 0.6; Pro Patria winless), making the most likely scenario a draw at the break and a Pergolettese victory in the second half.