Persik Kediri vs Dewa United: match statistics

Dewa United are showing better current form: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches and averaged 1.8 points per game, while Persik Kediri have won only twice and averaged 1.2 points. Both teams scored 7 goals during this period, so the visitors’ advantage does not stem from greater attacking efficiency. The key factor is defence: Dewa United conceded just 2 goals in five matches, compared with 11 for Persik Kediri, an average of 2.2 goals per game. The hosts have lost 3 of their last 5 appearances and are coming off two consecutive defeats, which, combined with the opponents’ solid defence, increases the visitors’ chances of securing a controlled victory. The lack of season-long data on home and away performances limits the significance of home advantage, but the recent results clearly point towards Dewa United.

The stronger signal comes from Dewa United: across the last 5 matches involving both teams, BTTS - Yes landed just 0% of the time, despite the team averaging 1.4 goals per game. The visitors conceded only 2 goals during this period, or 0.4 per match, while allowing opponents an average of 1.23 xG, increasing the likelihood of Persik Kediri failing to score. Persik averaged 1.4 goals but suffered 3 defeats in their last 5 outings, with BTTS landing in only 40% of their matches. The hosts are clearly less solid defensively, conceding 2.2 goals per game compared with 0.4 for their opponents. Therefore, the most likely scenario is a Dewa United goal and BTTS - No, meaning at least one team fails to score.

The most reliable data comes from the last 5 matches, as full-season statistics are unavailable. During this period, Persik averaged 1.4 goals scored but conceded as many as 2.2, while Dewa United scored 1.4 goals and allowed opponents just 0.4 goals per match. The visitors’ advantage is also evident in chance quality: their average xG is 1.71, compared with 1.47 xG allowed by Persik. The hosts had 80% of their matches finish Over 2.5 goals, but the figure for the visitors is only 20%, making the 2.5 line too ambiguous. However, a projected total of 2.55 goals and Persik’s poor recent defensive form provide a clearer edge for Over 1.5.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Dewa United victory at the final whistle, as both teams were level after 45 minutes in 2 of their last 5 matches. During this period, Dewa United conceded just 0.4 goals per match, compared with 2.2 for Persik Kediri, while the visitors won 3 of their last 5 matches against 2 victories for the hosts. After the break, Persik Kediri average only 0.4 goals scored and allow opponents 1.6, whereas Dewa United score 1.0 goal and concede just 0.2. The hosts lost the second half in 4 of their last 5 appearances, while Dewa United did not lose any of their last 5 second halves, further strengthening the HT/FT X/2 scenario, in which the visitors take control after an even first half.