Persikad vs Bekasi City: match statistics

Bekasi City are the favorites: they sit 3rd vs 8th Persikad and have 11 wins, 8 draws and 6 losses this season, while Persikad have 8 wins, 6 draws and 11 losses. Defensively the visitors are markedly better – Bekasi have conceded 22 goals all season vs 40 for Persikad, and away they concede 1.17 goals per game vs 1.5 conceded by Persikad at home. Persikad, however, create more at home: home average xG is 1.3 vs 0.99 xG for Bekasi away, average shots 9.82 vs 7.08 and 3.82 shots on target vs 3.33, with conversion rate 16% vs 15%. Recent form over the last 5 matches is mixed — Persikad scored 10 goals and have 1 win with an average of 1.0 point per game, while Bekasi scored 7 goals with 2 wins and an average of 1.6 points per game, indicating greater points stability for the visitors. Considering Bekasi’s better overall record and lower goals conceded per match, plus Persikad’s moderate edge in chance creation (xG 1.3 vs 0.99), I predict an away win, though I expect a 2–3 goal game — average goal figures are 2.92 for the home side vs 2.25 for the visitors.

A strong BTTS signal comes from both teams’ form over the last 5 matches: Persikad has BTTS 100% (5/5), Bekasi 80% (4/5). In that period Persikad averaged 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, while Bekasi averaged 1.4 scored and 1.6 conceded per match. Seasonal stats are mixed — season BTTS is 46% for Persikad and 50% for Bekasi, with clean sheets 46% vs 33%, suggesting Persikad historically kept more clean sheets, but recent form contradicts that. Quality-of-chances analysis shows Persikad’s advantage in chance creation — attacking xG 1.41 versus Bekasi 0.99, averaging 11.33 shots and 4.42 on target compared to Bekasi’s 7.08 and 3.33 — while Bekasi has 37 goals this season, so they can finish. Given the 100%/80% BTTS in the last 5, Persikad’s higher xG and shot volume, and the recent goals conceded averages (2.0 and 1.6), the stronger signal is the Both Teams To Score scenario — I rate BTTS (Yes) 70% and No Goal 30%, hence the pick: yes.

Persikad scores an average of 1.85 goals per match, Bekasi City 1.08, and xG is 1.41 (Persikad) vs 0.99 (Bekasi), indicating an offensive edge for the home side. Combining attack xG with opponent xG conceded gives estimated expected goals: Persikad (1.41 vs 1.37) ≈ 1.39, Bekasi (0.99 vs 1.52) ≈ 1.26, totaling around 2.65 goals. Seasonal percentages for over 1.5 are 62% for the home team and 75% for the away team (average ~69%), while over 2.5 are 46% and 42% (average ~44%), and over 3.5 only 23% and 25% (avg ~24%). Additionally, Persikad averages 11.33 shots (4.42 on target) vs 7.08 (3.33 on target) for Bekasi, and in the last 5 matches Persikad had 80% of games over 2.5 and 100% BTTS, which increases the likelihood of at least two goals. As a result the strongest signal is over 1.5 (I recommend an Over on the 1.5 line) with a probability of 76%; Over 2.5 is more balanced (48%) and Over 3.5 has low chances (24%).

Persikad is clearly stronger at Half-Time: the hosts led at the break in 54% of matches, averaging 0.85 goals scored by Half-Time and only 0.08 conceded. Over full matches Persikad wins 62% of games and has a seasonal average of 1.85 goals scored versus 0.62 conceded, while Bekasi City averages 1.08 scored and 1.17 conceded, so the hosts’ advantage generally holds through to Full-Time. Offensive metrics support this: Persikad records 4.42 shots on target and an xG of 1.41 per match versus 3.33 shots on target and xG 0.99 for the visitors, meaning the hosts create more high-quality chances. Additionally, Persikad scored 6 goals in minutes 16–30 and 4 goals in minutes 31–45, while practically not conceding by Half-Time (clean halves in 92%), which suggests they often take a lead at the break and maintain it. Based on this, the most likely HT/FT scenario is 1/1, estimated probability 44%, with alternatives 1/X (8%) and X/X (13%) and a lower probability of an away win; therefore the recommendation is to play 1/1.