Persis Solo vs Persebaya Surabaya: match statistics

I predict an away win (Persebaya Surabaya). The visitors show superior form and stability — Persebaya have won 3 of their last 5 matches and average 1.8 points in that period, while Persis have won 2 of 5 and average 1.2 points. The difference in efficiency and defense is significant: Persebaya scored 11 goals and conceded 5 in their last 5 matches, whereas Persis scored 6 and conceded as many as 13; over the season Persis conceded 58 goals compared to 35 for Persebaya. At home Persis generates more shots (avg. 12.93 shots and 5 on target per match) and has an xG of 1.58, but a low conversion rate of 11% and only 7% clean sheets make them vulnerable, while Persebaya, with 9.53 shots and 3.2 on target, have a higher conversion of 14% and concede only 1.13 goals on average away with a 40% clean sheet rate. Given the better recent goal numbers, efficiency and clearly superior defense, I give the visitors the higher probability.

I back BTTS - Yes at 70% vs 30% because Persis has a seasonal BTTS rate of 63% and 60% in the last 5 matches, indicating the home side’s propensity for games with goals at both ends. Persebaya averaged 2.2 goals in their last 5 matches (11 goals in 5) with xG 2.05, while Persis conceded an average of 2.6 goals in the same period (13 conceded), so the visitors’ scoring chances are high. Persis generates more chances — 5.44 shots on target and xG 1.74 per game — and Persebaya concedes an xG against of 1.69, which also gives the hosts realistic scoring opportunities despite the visitors having a 40% clean sheet rate for the season. Additionally, the league averages 53% BTTS matches, and the seasonal goals averages are 1.81 for Persis and 1.33 for Persebaya with 1.13 conceded by both teams, which together favors a trade-of-goals scenario. On this basis I recommend a Yes bet as the strongest signal.

Calculated expected goals are 1.72 for Persis Solo and 1.28 for Persebaya (total 3.00), computed as the average of home attack xG 1.74 and away defense xG 1.69, and away attack xG 1.15 and home defense xG 1.41. This aligns with seasonal goal averages: Persis scores 1.81 goals per game, Persebaya 1.33, combined 3.14 goals on average, and in the last 5 matches Persebaya scored 11 goals (2.2 avg) versus Persis 6 goals (1.2 avg). A Poisson model with lambda=3.00 gives probability of Over 1.5 around 80%, Over 2.5 around 58% and Over 3.5 around 35%, supported by seasonal Over 1.5 rates (Persis 75%, Persebaya 73%) and the last 5 matches (both teams have 80% Over 2.5). Additionally Persis averages 5.44 shots on target per game vs 3.2 for Persebaya and with similar conversion (13% vs 14%) this increases the chance of converting opportunities. Therefore the strongest signal is to play Over 1.5 (probability ~80%), so I recommend the over side on the 1.5 line.

First-half statistics favor a draw: Persis averages 0.69 goals at the break versus Persebaya’s 0.27, and a half-time draw occurred for the home side in 50% of matches (Persis led in 31% of cases). Over the full 90 minutes Persis holds the offensive edge (xG 1.74 vs 1.15, 5.44 shots on target vs 3.20) and a season-long win conversion rate of 50%, suggesting they more often achieve a full-time victory. Combining these signals the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Persis win at full-time: I assign X/1 26% (half-time draw 50% × home advantage in the second half), while 1/1 is 24% because Persis led at the break in 31% and often maintain the lead. Turnarounds are less likely — 2/2 I rate at 13% given Persebaya’s lower xG (1.15) and only 0.27 goals at the break, and 1/2 or 2/1 scenarios I rate at 2–3%.