Perugia vs Spezia: match statistics

Spezia arrive in clearly better form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 11 goals and conceding only 3, while Perugia have recorded 2 wins over the same period with a 7:6 goal difference. The visitors are also creating higher-quality chances, averaging 1.58 xG away from home compared with Perugia’s 1.39 xG at home, while their average xG against is just 0.91, compared with 1.12 for the hosts. Spezia more often control matches through possession, averaging 70% away from home, and record 12.5 shots and 5 on target per game, compared with Perugia’s 11.5 and 4. The hosts are unbeaten at home and have won both of their home matches so far, conceding an average of just 0.5 goals, which makes a draw a realistic outcome. However, the current form advantage and superior chance-creation metrics slightly favour a Spezia victory.

The case for both teams to score is supported primarily by current form: Perugia recorded BTTS in 80% of their last five matches, while Spezia did so in 60%. During this period, the hosts scored an average of 1.4 goals and conceded 1.2, whereas Spezia scored as many as 2.2 goals per match while conceding only 0.6. Perugia created chances worth 1.78 xG in their last five games, giving them a solid basis for breaking down the visitors’ defence, despite Spezia allowing an average of just 0.85 xG. The away side should, in turn, benefit from the fact that Perugia allow opponents 1.22 xG and concede an average of 5 shots on target to Spezia, compared with 3 for Perugia. Perugia’s season-long run of clean sheets reduces confidence in the pick, but more recent results and Spezia’s attacking potential slightly favour the BTTS scenario.

Spezia boasts a clearly stronger attack: it averages 12.5 shots and 5 shots on target per match, with an xG of 1.58 compared to Perugia’s 1.34. The last five matches increase the goal-scoring potential for both sides, as Perugia averaged 1.4 goals per game during this period and Spezia as many as 2.2, with combined xG figures of 1.78 and 1.55, respectively. At least three goals were scored in 60% of each team’s last five matches, while both teams found the net in 80% of Perugia’s games and 60% of Spezia’s. At the same time, Spezia has conceded just 0.6 goals per match recently, and its average xG against stands at 0.85, which limits confidence in Over 2.5 goals. The strongest signal is therefore Over 1.5 goals: the projected total of 2.60 goals provides substantial room to cover this line without requiring an open game with four goals.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Spezia win, as Perugia were level at the break in 60% of their last five matches, compared with 40% for Spezia. However, the visitors are clearly stronger in terms of current form: they have won 80% of their last five matches, scoring an average of 2.2 goals and conceding just 0.6, while Perugia average 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. Spezia are particularly effective after the break, averaging 1.8 goals compared with Perugia’s 0.8, and goals were scored after half-time in all five of the visitors’ last matches. Spezia’s attacking advantage is also reflected in their average xG of 1.58 versus the hosts’ 1.34, as well as in shots on target: 5.0 to 3.0. Perugia may maintain a favourable draw for a long period thanks to their home organisation, but Spezia’s superior quality and very strong second-half performances point towards the X/2 scenario.