Peterhead vs Queen of the South: match statistics

Peterhead have won just 1 of their last 5 matches, but have a clear chance to get back on track at home against an opponent who have lost all 4 of their away games so far. Queen of the South average 0.75 goals scored and a hefty 4.75 conceded on the road; Peterhead also score 0.75 goals per game at home, but concede considerably fewer — 1.75. The quality of chances created also points to Peterhead: their home xG stands at 1.12, compared with 0.91 for Queen of the South away, while the visitors allow opponents chances worth an average of 2.02 xG. Queen of the South have scored 10 goals in their last 5 matches and won 2 of them, but conceded 18 over the same period, undermining their prospects despite the hosts' poor form.

Both teams regularly feature in matches with goals at both ends: the BTTS rate is 60% for Peterhead and 75% for Queen of the South, compared with 45% in the league. The hosts’ chances of scoring are boosted by the fact that the visitors have conceded an average of 4.75 goals in away matches and have allowed opponents to score 3.6 goals per game across their last 5 matches overall. Queen of the South average just 0.75 goals away from home, but have scored an average of 2.0 goals across their last 5 matches, while Peterhead have conceded 1.6 goals per game over the same period. In addition, neither team has kept a clean sheet in the relevant matches this season, supporting a BTTS - Yes pick, although the visitors’ low away scoring average means it cannot be considered a certainty.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals: this line has been cleared in 80% of Peterhead matches and 100% of Queen of the South matches. The visitors concede an average of 4.75 goals in the matches covered by the data, while their opponents generate chances worth 2.02 xG against them, which points to goals for the home side. Peterhead average 1.4 goals scored, compared with Queen of the South’s 0.75, so the visitors’ own scoring record does not provide as strong a basis for backing a higher line. Although Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Peterhead’s and 80% of Queen of the South’s last five matches, the 1.5 line offers a clearly greater safety margin.

The strongest signal in favor of Peterhead leading at the break is Queen of the South’s away form: the visitors were trailing at half-time in all four such matches and conceded an average of 2.25 goals before the break. The hosts have scored only 0.4 first-half goals per match, so a half-time draw remains a significant alternative, but the visitors’ defensive weakness away from home points to a 1/1 scenario. The case for Peterhead holding on to their lead is strengthened by Queen of the South losing all four away matches, conceding an average of 4.75 goals over the full match and 2.5 after the break. Peterhead average 1.4 goals per match, and their xG of 1.15 compared with the visitors’ 0.91 further underlines the hosts’ advantage. However, caution is warranted: across their last five matches overall, the visitors averaged two goals, while Peterhead lost four times. Even so, the disparity in the away results makes a Peterhead lead at half-time followed by a home win the most likely outcome.