Petrojet vs Ismaily SC: match statistics

I back the home win (Petrojet): the hosts average 1.25 goals at home and have a 42% home win rate, while Ismaily average only 0.21 goals away and have won just 7% of away matches. Petrojet create and convert more: on average 10.92 shots and 3.58 on target per home match with an 11% conversion rate, whereas Ismaily average 7.71 shots and 2.14 on target with only a 3% conversion. In the last 5 matches Petrojet scored 4 goals and average 1.6 points per game (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss), while Ismaily recorded 1 goal and average 0.4 points per game (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses). Defensively both concede at a similar rate (Petrojet concede 1.08 goals at home, Ismaily concede 1.07 away), however Ismaily have only 14% clean sheets on the road and fail to score in 79% of their away matches, whereas Petrojet have 33% clean sheets and fail to score in only 17% of home games. Considering the home advantage in quality of chances and finishing, and Ismaily’s clearly inferior attacking metrics and form (1.6 pts vs 0.4 pts over the last 5), I assign a 70% probability to a Petrojet win, 20% to a draw and 10% to an away win.

I pick “no” – the main reason is Ismaily’s very poor finishing: on average 0.21 goals per match this season (12 goals) and only 0.2 in the last 5 matches (1 goal total), which strongly limits the likelihood of BTTS - Yes. Petrojet as the home side has a seasonal average of 0.75 goals per match (27 goals) and 0.8 in the last 5, with xG 1.03 and an average of 2.92 shots on target, so they are the primary creators and the more likely scorers. BTTS statistics show a clear asymmetry: Petrojet had BTTS in 50% of season matches (40% in the last 5), while Ismaily only 14% seasonally (20% in the last 5), meaning historically the hosts more often score alone. Despite similar xG for both teams (around 1.03–1.05), the conversion gap (conversion rate 10% vs 3%) indicates Ismaily fail to turn chances into goals (the difference between xG 1.05 and 0.21 is -0.84), so a 1:0/2:0 scenario is more probable; I suggest 30% for BTTS - Yes and 70% for BTTS - No.

xG analysis shows similar chance levels for both teams: Petrojet xG for 1.03 vs Ismaily xG for 1.05, with xG against equal at 1.31 for both; using a simple attack/defense average this yields ~1.17 goals for the home side and ~1.18 for the away side (total ~2.35). With lambda=2.35 the Poisson distribution implies ~68% probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), ~42% for at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) and ~21% for at least 4 goals (Over 3.5). Seasonal stats support Over 1.5: Petrojet at home has 75% of matches over 1.5 goals, averaging 7.67 shots with 10% conversion (hence 0.75 goals on average), while Ismaily has a low 3% conversion and averages 0.21 goals away. Over 2.5 is a mixed signal – Petrojet have 58% Over 2.5 at home, but Ismaily have 0% Over 2.5 on the road, so the ~42% probability does not provide a clear edge. Therefore I recommend backing Over 1.5 (line 1.5) as the most reliable signal based on the expected 2.35 goals and Petrojet’s seasonal home profile.

At half-time Petrojet led in 40% of their last 5 matches (2 of 5), while Ismaily did not lead in any of those five fixtures (0%); the average first-half goals are 0.25 for the home side versus 0.07 for the visitors. Over the full match Petrojet show better form in the last 5 — 40% wins compared to 0% for Ismaily — and the seasonal goal averages are 0.75 (Petrojet) vs 0.21 (Ismaily), which gives the home team the advantage. Petrojet are more clinical in finishing (conversion rate 10% vs 3%), with a similar xG of 1.03 (Petrojet) vs 1.05 (Ismaily), so the hosts convert chances more efficiently. Considering the more frequent lead at the break (40% in the last 5) and superior efficiency, the strongest signal is Half-Time/Full-Time lead and win (1/1), while due to a relatively high number of draws at half-time the X/X variant receives the second-highest weight.