Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati: match statistics

Philadelphia Union have stronger underlying numbers for a home win: they average 1.94 xG per match, while FC Cincinnati allow opponents 1.94 xG away from home and concede as many as 2.73 goals per game. The hosts also record 17.2 shots per home match compared with Cincinnati’s 12.09 away attempts, while their defence concedes just 1.1 goals on average. Cincinnati score 1.64 goals per away match and have a 14% conversion rate, but they have kept no clean sheets on the road, increasing Union’s chances of capitalising on their superiority in chance creation. Current form also slightly favours the hosts, who have collected 8 points and scored 9 goals in their last five matches, compared with the visitors’ 5 points and just 5 goals. A draw remains a realistic possibility, as Philadelphia draw 40% of their home matches, but Cincinnati’s poor away defence points towards a 1 result.

The signal for both teams to score is very strong: BTTS occurred in 73% of Philadelphia Union matches and as many as 82% of FC Cincinnati fixtures, compared with the league average of 63%. In their last five matches, both teams recorded BTTS in 80% of cases, while Philadelphia averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, compared with Cincinnati’s 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded. The hosts have a high average of 2.82 goals scored per match, whereas Cincinnati have not kept a single clean sheet this season and concede an average of 2.73 goals to opponents. The visitors’ potential to respond is supported by an xG of 1.45 for the season and 1.71 across their last five appearances, with an xG against Philadelphia of 1.65. The BTTS scenario is therefore clearly more likely than a match in which at least one team fails to score.

Philadelphia Union score an average of 2.82 goals at home, while FC Cincinnati concede as many as 2.73 goals away, clearly strengthening the outlook for a high-scoring game. The chance-creation potential is also high: the hosts’ average xG is 1.73 and the visitors’ 1.45, with both sides conceding xG at 1.65 and 1.94 respectively. In 91% of each team’s matches, at least 2 goals were scored, while Over 2.5 occurred in 64% of Philadelphia’s games and 73% of Cincinnati’s. In their last five matches, both teams recorded Over 2.5 in 60% of cases, while both teams scored in 80% of those games. The strongest selection is Over 1.5, as the consistent frequency of surpassing this line is supported by a forecast of 3.35 goals in the match overall.

Philadelphia Union have a clear advantage in full-match results: they win 64% of their matches and score an average of 2.82 goals, while FC Cincinnati win just 9% of their games and concede an average of 2.73 goals. The hosts also create more chances, averaging 6.64 shots on target compared with the opponents’ 5.45, while their xG stands at 1.73 versus Cincinnati’s 1.45. At half-time, Philadelphia were leading in 36% of matches, twice as often as the visitors, who were trailing at the break in 36% of games. The second half is particularly significant: Union score an average of 1.64 goals and win 55% of second-half outcomes, whereas Cincinnati score only 0.73 goals and lose 55% of second halves. The most likely scenario, therefore, remains a Philadelphia lead at the break followed by a home win at the final whistle (1/1).