Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake: match statistics

Philadelphia Union have won all of their last 5 matches, scoring 20 goals and conceding 5, while Real Salt Lake have lost 4 of their last 5 games and scored just 4 goals. At home, the hosts average 1.77 goals per match, while the visitors concede 1.85 per game away and have yet to keep a clean sheet on the road. Philadelphia’s advantage is also reflected in the quality of chances created: their home xG is 1.99 compared with the visitors’ away xG of 1.24, while the average number of shots on target is 5.62 versus 3.46. The hosts concede chances worth an average xG of 0.88 at home, whereas Real Salt Lake allow opponents to reach 1.59 xG away. With the visitors losing 69% of their away matches, a Philadelphia win is the most likely outcome.

Across the season, both teams have scored in 57% of Philadelphia Union’s matches and 77% of Real Salt Lake’s, which supports the BTTS - Yes pick. The hosts average 1.93 goals with an xG of 1.81, while the visitors concede 1.85 goals per match and have yet to keep a clean sheet, making a Philadelphia goal seem likely. The visitors’ chances of scoring are supported by the fact that Philadelphia concede an average of 1.43 goals and keep a clean sheet in only 21% of matches. However, caution is warranted: Real Salt Lake have scored just 4 goals in their last five matches, and both teams scored in only 20% of their games during that period. Despite the visitors’ recent dip in finishing, their season-long rate of matches with goals from both sides gives the BTTS - Yes scenario a slight edge.

Philadelphia score an average of 1.93 goals at home, while Real Salt Lake concede 1.85 away, pointing to a clear attacking advantage for the hosts. This is backed up by average xG figures of 1.81 for Philadelphia’s attack and 1.59 for the chances conceded by the visitors. Over their last 5 matches, Philadelphia averaged 4.0 goals scored, despite averaging 2.05 xG, so this unusually high conversion rate should not be carried directly into the forecast. Over 1.5 goals has landed in 100% of Philadelphia’s home matches and 85% of Real Salt Lake’s away games, giving it stronger backing than Over 2.5 goals, which has landed in 71% and 62% of those matches, respectively. With a forecast of 3.10 total goals, Over 1.5 goals is the strongest signal, even though the visitors average only 1.0 goals scored away.

The strongest signal is Philadelphia leading at the break and winning at full time: the hosts led at half-time in 3 of their last 5 matches and won all 5, while Real Salt Lake lost 4 of 5. Over this period, Philadelphia averaged 1.0 goals before the break, compared with just 0.2 for the visitors, pointing to a home advantage in the first half. Their chances of holding on to the lead are further supported by their second-half scoring: they averaged 3.0 goals after the break in their last 5 matches, while Real Salt Lake conceded 1.2. A draw at half-time remains a significant alternative, as the visitors finished 54% of their matches level at the break; however, over the full season Philadelphia won 57% of their matches, compared with just 8% for their opponents. Therefore, 1/1 is the most likely single outcome, although the possibility of a later turnaround also gives considerable weight to X/1.