Phnom Penh Crown vs Svay Rieng: match statistics

Statistically Svay Rieng is superior: they sit 1st with 18 wins this season versus Phnom Penh Crown's 14 and a better goal difference (69 scored vs 45). Form gap is clear — the home side have lost their last 5 matches (0 wins, 0 points, 3 goals scored and 9 conceded in those five), while Svay Rieng’s last 5 show 3 wins and 2 draws, scoring 9 and conceding 3, averaging 2.2 points per match over that span. In chance quality the visitors also dominate: on average 18.58 shots and 7.67 on target per game with a 16% conversion rate and average xG 2.2, versus the hosts at home registering 15.92 shots and 5.42 on target with a 12% conversion and xG 1.8; Svay Rieng also control possession (64% vs 57%). Defensively the visitors’ advantage is evident — 0.75 goals conceded away compared to Phnom Penh Crown’s 1.08 conceded at home and 42% clean sheets on the road versus 33% for the hosts. Considering the hosts’ 0 points in their last 5, Svay Rieng’s superiority in xG, shots and efficiency, I forecast an away win for Svay Rieng.

Both teams have a seasonal BTTS rate of 58% and 60% in the last 5 matches, versus a league BTTS of 55%, indicating consistency for this outcome. Seasonal goals averages show strong attacking output: Phnom Penh Crown scores 2.75 and concedes 1.08 per match, while Svay Rieng scores 3.00 and concedes 0.75; xG is 1.95 vs 2.20, confirming both sides create chances. In the last 5 matches Phnom Penh scored 3 and conceded 9 (0.6 scored / 1.8 conceded on average), and Svay Rieng scored 9 and conceded 3 (1.8 / 0.6), which points to a high likelihood of away goals and home vulnerability. Although Svay Rieng has the better recent defense (0.75 seasonally and 0.6 in the last 5), the high percentage of matches over 2.5 goals (75% for both) together with aligned BTTS metrics strengthens the 'both teams to score' scenario. Therefore I recommend 'BTTS - Yes' with an estimated probability of 72%.

Based on xG: Phnom Penh Crown has xG_for 1.95 vs opponent xG_against 1.06, yielding ~1.51 expected goals for the home side; Svay Rieng has xG_for 2.20 vs home xG_against 0.99, yielding ~1.60 for the away side, totaling ~3.11 expected goals. A Poisson model with λ=3.11 indicates probability of Over 1.5 at ~82%, Over 2.5 at ~60% and Over 3.5 at ~38%. Seasonal figures confirm the offensive profile: Phnom Penh averages 2.75 goals scored, Svay Rieng 3.00, and the share of matches with >1.5 is 92% for both and with >2.5 is 75% for both, reinforcing the signal toward more than 1.5 goals. Despite the home side’s weaker form in the last 5 matches (3 scored and 9 conceded), the high average xG and total of 3.11 goals support Over 1.5 as the strongest and most likely bet.

I rate X/2 (draw at half-time, away win at full-time) as the strongest signal and assign it a 30% probability. Both teams frequently score in the first half — Phnom Penh averages 1.58 goals by the break, Svay Rieng 1.33 (about 2.91 combined), and 92% of Phnom Penh’s home matches and 75% of Svay Rieng’s away matches feature at least one goal before half-time, which increases the likelihood of a 1:1 half-time score. After the break the advantage lies with the visitors: Svay has higher xG (2.20 vs. the home side’s 1.95), more shots on target (7.67 vs. 5.92) and scores on average 1.67 goals after half-time versus 1.17 for the hosts; the away side wins 67% of second halves compared to 57% for the home team. Additionally, recent form over the last five matches favors Svay — the home form is ‘lllll’ (0% wins), the away form ‘dwwwd’ (60% wins in the last five), which increases the probability of a turnaround after the break. For that reason the distribution also allocates smaller but meaningful chances to 1/1 (12%) and 2/2 (17%) as alternatives.