Phoenix Rising vs Monterey Bay: match statistics
Phoenix Rising vs Monterey Bay: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Phoenix Rising played Monterey Bay in USL Championship (United States). The match was played on 19 July 2026. Venue: Phoenix Rising Soccer Complex. Final score: 3:2.
Current form
Phoenix Rising: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match. Monterey Bay: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Phoenix Rising scores 1.33 and concedes 1.47 goals per match. Monterey Bay scores 0.93 and concedes 1.47. League average: 2.78 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Phoenix Rising 53%, Monterey Bay 47%. Over 2.5: Phoenix Rising 47%, Monterey Bay 47%. League level: BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 52%.
xG, shots and style
Phoenix Rising has higher xG: 1.43 vs 1.23. Phoenix Rising: 11.9 shots per match, Monterey Bay: 9.9.
Match halves
Phoenix Rising: half-time lead 27%, second-half goals 0.93. Monterey Bay: half-time lead 20%, second-half goals 0.67.
Goals by minute
Phoenix Rising: 61-75 (6 goals). Monterey Bay: 76-90+ (5 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
USL Championship: 2.78 goals per match, BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 52%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 4 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-3. Average goals 2.50, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Phoenix Rising holds a clear advantage in quality of chances: the hosts average 1.71 goals per home match with an average xG of 1.83, while Monterey Bay scores just 0.57 goals on average away with xG 1.06. The gap in chance creation is significant — Phoenix averages 15.43 shots per home game of which 6.57 are on target, versus the visitors’ 8.43 shots and only 1.71 on target away, with conversion rates of 11% vs 7%. Defensively the hosts concede 1.43 goals at home on average, while Monterey concedes 2.0 away; the goal differential in the hosts’ home matches is +2 compared to the visitors’ -10 on the road. It is important to note Phoenix’s poor recent form over the last 5 matches — averaging 0.2 points and 12 goals conceded (2.4 per game) — whereas Monterey have 1.4 points in that period, but have not yet achieved an away win (0) and failed to score in 43% of their away trips. Considering the superiority in chance production and the visitors’ dreadful away record, I forecast a home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I pick BTTS - Yes, estimating probability at 65%: Phoenix Rising have had BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches and concede an average of 2.4 goals per game, while Monterey Bay concede 2.0 goals per game this season. Phoenix score 1.25 goals per game on average (xG 1.38), whereas Monterey have a seasonal goals scored average of 0.57 (xG 1.06), and the visitors allow opponents an average of 1.67 xG per game — this favors a home goal. Despite low seasonal efficiency, Monterey improved to 1.0 goal per game over the last 5 matches and have a seasonal BTTS rate of 57% (Phoenix 38%), which increases the chance the away side will also score. Additionally, Phoenix register 4.13 shots on target per game versus Monterey’s 1.71, and season totals are 20 goals scored and 22 conceded for Phoenix versus 14 scored and 22 conceded for Monterey, indicating home attacking superiority and away defensive vulnerability. Considering the combination of recent form (80% vs 40% BTTS), high average goals conceded (2.4 and 2.0) and xG (1.38 vs 1.06), I assess BTTS as more likely than No Goal (65% vs 35%).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG-based model gives Phoenix an expected 1.53 goals (xG_for 1.38 vs opponent xG 1.67 → average 1.53) and Monterey 1.12 goals (xG_for 1.06 vs opponent xG 1.19 → average 1.12), total xG ≈ 2.65. Both teams have a high share of matches over 1.5 goals: Phoenix 63% and Monterey 71% (average 67%), which together with the cumulative xG increases the probability of Over 1.5. Regarding 2.5 goals the situation is more balanced — seasonally Phoenix has 50% of matches over 2.5 and Monterey 43% (average ~46%), but the last 5 matches show combined xG 1.56+1.34=2.90, which supports moderate backing for Over 2.5. Additionally, Phoenix averages 4.13 shots on target per match with an 11% conversion rate, and Monterey 1.71 shots on target with a 7% conversion; Monterey also concedes 2.0 goals per match on average (xG against 1.67), which elevates the risk of goals. Based on this I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal, with moderate support for Over 2.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Phoenix Rising led at the break in 3 matches (38%), while Monterey Bay did not lead at the break in any match (0%); the home side averages 0.50 goals by half-time versus 0.00 for the visitors and concedes only 0.13 goals by half-time compared to Monterey’s 0.86. Over the season Phoenix wins 50% of matches and records 1.25 goals scored and 1.63 points per game, whereas Monterey has 0.57 goals and 0.29 points per game, indicating a clear advantage for the hosts in results. Phoenix’s offensive superiority is supported by xG of 1.38 versus 1.06 and shots on target per game of 4.13 vs 1.71, meaning the hosts create substantially more high-quality chances. Additionally, Phoenix scored 2 goals in minutes 0–15 and 2 goals in minutes 16–30 (4 goals in the first 30 minutes in total), while Monterey conceded 1 and 3 goals in those intervals, indicating the visitors’ vulnerability in the early phase. Given Phoenix’s 38% rate of leading at the break and 50% win rate for the hosts over the season, the strongest signal from the data is the HT/FT 1/1 scenario (lead at the break and win), hence the recommendation of a 1/1 bet.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Phoenix Rising | Monterey Bay | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 30% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Monterey Bay is 150% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / match - Phoenix Rising · 2 pts / match - Monterey Bay
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Phoenix Rising is 43% better for: goals scored per match.
1.33 goals / match - Phoenix Rising · 0.93 goals / match - Monterey Bay
Phoenix Rising scores in 80% of matches (12 of 15 matches), while Monterey Bay keeps a clean sheet in 27% (4 of 15 matches).
Monterey Bay scores in 60% of matches (9 of 15 matches), while Phoenix Rising keeps a clean sheet in 27% (4 of 15 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Phoenix Rising
Over / Under - Monterey Bay
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Phoenix Rising is 12% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.2 pts / match - Phoenix Rising · 1.07 pts / match - Monterey Bay
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Phoenix Rising - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 27% of matches and wins 27%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Monterey Bay - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 20% of matches and wins 27%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 1.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 2.6 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -5 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (6 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (5 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Phoenix Rising
Monterey Bay
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (USL Championship).
Teams vs league
| Phoenix Rising | Liga | Monterey Bay | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.80 | 2.78 | ▼ 2.40 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 53% | 57% | ▼ 47% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 47% | 52% | ▼ 47% |
| Clean sheets | • 27% | 26% | • 27% |
| Goal before half-time | • 67% | 67% | ▼ 53% |
| Goal after half-time | • 80% | 80% | ▲ 87% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (4): Phoenix Rising 1 - 0 - 3 Monterey Bay. Average goals 2.50, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Phoenix Rising vs Monterey Bay?
The USL Championship match finished Phoenix Rising 3:2 Monterey Bay. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Phoenix Rising and Monterey Bay?
In the last 4 head-to-head matches Phoenix Rising won 1, Monterey Bay won 3 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Phoenix Rising vs Monterey Bay?
Phoenix Rising score 1.33 goals per game on average and Monterey Bay 0.93. The USL Championship average is 2.78 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 52% of games. Both teams score in 53% of Phoenix Rising's matches and 47% of Monterey Bay's.
What form are Phoenix Rising and Monterey Bay in?
Over the last 5 games Phoenix Rising have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Monterey Bay 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Phoenix Rising vs Monterey Bay?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Phoenix Rising vs Monterey Bay: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.