Pianese vs Grosseto: match statistics

Grosseto are showing significantly better form: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches and scored 8 goals during that run, while Pianese have failed to win any game, scored just 3 goals and suffered 3 defeats. Away from home, the visitors have won 100% of their matches so far, averaging 2 goals and posting a very high xG of 2.68. Pianese drew 0:0 in their only home appearance, failed to score, and average just 35% possession compared with Grosseto’s 60%. The visitors’ superiority in chance creation is particularly evident in the shot numbers: 23 per match and 8 on target, compared with 10 attempts and 2 shots on target for the hosts. Pianese’s defence has managed to keep a clean sheet at home, but given the hosts’ poor attacking efficiency, a controlled Grosseto victory is the more likely outcome.

Grosseto has a very strong goalscoring profile: it averages 2.0 goals, has not kept a clean sheet once, and BTTS has occurred in 100% of its matches. The visitors also create more chances than Pianese, recording an average xG of 2.68 and 8.0 shots on target compared with the hosts’ 2.0 xG and 7.0 shots on target. Pianese has a solid defense, averaging only 0.5 goals conceded and recording clean sheets in 50% of its matches, but in its last five games it has conceded 1.4 goals with an xG against of 1.72. The main risk for BTTS is the hosts’ weaker recent finishing, having scored 3 goals in five matches, but Grosseto concedes an average of 1.0 goal and has an xG against of 1.51. The visitors’ attacking advantage and their consistent vulnerability to conceding slightly support both teams finding the net.

Pianese have scored just 0.6 goals per game in their last 5 matches, while Grosseto have conceded an average of 1.0 goal during this period, which limits the hosts’ attacking outlook. The visitors are in better offensive form, averaging 1.6 goals scored and an xG of 2.00 across their last five appearances, but despite their poorer results, Pianese have allowed opponents an average of 1.72 xG. Overall, only 20% of Pianese’s last five matches featured at least three goals, compared with 40% for Grosseto. Season-long data point to potential at both ends, as Grosseto average 23.0 shots, yet historically, matches between the two teams have not exceeded four goals. The strongest selection is therefore Under 3.5 goals, as the projected 2.30 goals provides a clear safety margin against this line.

Grosseto are showing significantly better current form: over their last five matches, they have averaged 1.6 goals and 2.0 points per game, while Pianese have scored just 0.6 goals and collected 0.4 points per match. The visitors were leading at the break in 80% of their last five appearances, compared with 40% for the hosts, while their average of 1.0 goal before half-time exceeds Pianese’s 0.6. Grosseto’s advantage is also evident in chance creation, with an average xG of 2.68 compared with the hosts’ 1.97, and 8.0 shots on target versus 7.0. After the interval, Pianese have failed to score in any of their last five matches and have conceded an average of 1.0 goal, increasing the likelihood that Grosseto will maintain their lead until full-time. The most likely scenario is therefore an HT/FT 2/2 outcome, with the visitors taking the lead before half-time and winning the match.