Pianese vs Ravenna: match statistics

Ravenna have gone unbeaten in all 7 matches this season, winning 4 of their last 5 and keeping a clean sheet in each; Pianese, by contrast, have failed to win during the same period and have conceded 7 goals. Away from home, the visitors average 1 goal per match, while the hosts score just 0.33 goals per game at home and have failed to find the net in 67% of those fixtures. Pianese do create chances, however—their home xG is 1.86 compared with Ravenna’s 1.61 away from home—but poor finishing has limited their ability to turn those opportunities into results. The visitors’ defensive record gives them the edge: they concede an average of 0.25 goals away from home and keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches. A draw remains a realistic possibility, as all of Pianese’s home games so far have ended level, but current form and finishing favour Ravenna.

The strongest signal for BTTS - No is Ravenna’s defence: they have kept a clean sheet in their last 5 matches, despite opponents creating chances worth an average of 1.14 xG against them. Both teams scored in 25% of Ravenna’s away matches and 33% of Pianese’s home matches; the teams kept a clean sheet in 75% and 67% of those matches, respectively. However, Pianese have the potential to break this run, averaging 2.67 goals and 5.33 shots on target at home, while Ravenna average 1.00 goal and 3.00 shots on target away. Despite the home side’s attacking advantage, Ravenna’s defensive form and low BTTS frequency make a match in which at least one team fails to score more likely.

The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals: Ravenna have stayed below this line in every match included, while Pianese have done so in 67% of their games. Ravenna have kept a clean sheet in their last five matches, and only 20% of their games have finished with Over 2.5 goals, limiting the potential for a high-scoring game. However, Pianese create chances worth an average of 1.93 xG at home, while Ravenna record 1.61 xG away, so I am not expecting a match without goalscoring opportunities. The projected total of 2.30 goals accounts for this attacking potential as well as the visitors’ recent defensive strength, and points to a clearer edge for Under 3.5 goals than for lower lines.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome, as both teams were level at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches, while Ravenna did not concede in the first half during that period. Pianese have averaged just 0.2 goals before half-time recently, although they led at the break in 2 of their 3 home matches. After the interval, form gives Ravenna the advantage: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, while Pianese have failed to win any and have lost 3. The visitors averaged 1.0 second-half goals in those matches and did not concede after the break, supporting the scenario of the match being decided in the second half. Pianese’s strong home record—3 wins in 3 matches—is a risk to this pick, however, so the edge for the X/2 scenario is not substantial.