Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa: match statistics

Raków is the favorite based on form and efficiency: the visitors have won 3 of their last 5 matches and average 1.8 points in that period, while Piast has 1 win and 1.2 points. The visitors register more shots on target (5.5 vs 4.0) and have a higher finishing efficiency (11% conversion versus Piast’s 7%), which translates to 1.56 goals scored per away match versus 1.19 for the home side. Piast, however, has a home defensive edge — conceding only 1.06 goals per home game compared to Raków’s 1.50 conceded away, and their home xG is 1.83 versus Raków’s 1.71, indicating the hosts create chances but convert them poorly. Additionally, Piast fail to score in 38% of home matches, while Raków fail to score in only 19% of away matches, favoring the visitors as more reliable in attack. Considering Raków’s superior scoring form and higher conversion, I assign them a 50% chance to win, 30% for a draw and 20% for Piast.

I assign a 62% probability to 'BTTS - Yes' and 38% to 'No', because several key seasonal indicators and xG favor both teams scoring. Raków has a seasonal BTTS rate of 69% versus Piast’s 44%, with the league average at 56%, which strongly signals 'Yes'. Both teams generate comparable xG: Piast average xG 1.7, Raków 1.71, and average xG against 1.47 (Piast) and 1.4 (Raków); additionally Raków averages 5.5 shots on target versus Piast’s 4.13 and has a higher conversion rate 11% vs 9%. Clean sheet stats further support BTTS — Piast keeps a clean sheet in 38% of matches (concedes in 62%), while Raków only 19% clean sheets (concedes in 81%). Although in the last 5 matches Piast had BTTS in 60% and Raków 40%, the combination of Raków’s season 69%, the league 56% and similar xG favors 'Yes' as the strongest signal.

Both teams show similar and high attacking potential: Piast records 1.70 xG at home while their opponents average 1.47 xG there; Raków has 1.71 xG away and their opponents average 1.40 xG. In goal figures Piast scores 1.25 goals at home, Raków 1.56 away, with average goals conceded 0.94 (Piast) and 1.50 (Raków), yielding predicted 1.55 goals for the home side and 1.60 for the visitors (total 3.15). Historically Over 1.5 occurs in 69% of Piast’s home matches and 81% of Raków’s away matches, while the share of matches with both teams scoring is 44% (Piast) and 69% (Raków). A Poisson model on a 3.15 total gives roughly 82% probability for Over 1.5, about 61% for Over 2.5 and about 39% for Over 3.5. Therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5 — high xG for both sides, a projected 3.15 goals and historical 69%/81% Over 1.5 rates create a clear edge for this selection.

Statistics suggest a draw at half-time followed by a Raków victory (X/2). Both teams draw at the break frequently: Piast in 50% of matches, Raków in 56%, so I estimate roughly a 54% chance of an HT draw. Raków is in better form (last 5 matches: 60% wins versus Piast’s 20%), scores on average 1.56 goals away compared to Piast’s 1.25 at home, has similar xG (1.71 vs 1.70) and more shots on target (5.5 vs 4.13), which gives them the edge after the break. Additionally, Raków have 94% of away matches with at least one goal in the second half and 69% BTTS, while Piast concedes on average 0.94 goals per match (0.5 before the break), hence X/2 is the strongest signal.