Picerno vs Savoia: match statistics

Picerno are slight favorites due to their more stable recent form: they have won 3, drawn 1 and lost just 1 of their last five matches, collecting 7 points in total. During this run, the hosts scored 8 goals and conceded 5, giving them a positive goal difference of +3. Savoia have scored more—10 goals in five matches—but their defense has conceded as many as 8, while the team has lost 2 of its last 5 fixtures. The visitors possess attacking potential, but Picerno’s greater defensive solidity, together with one draw in their recent run, points to a narrow home advantage. The lack of seasonal data on home and away results limits the level of confidence, making a draw a realistic scenario.

Both teams recorded BTTS in 80% of their last five matches, which is a clear signal in favor of goals at both ends. During this period, Picerno scored 8 goals, averaging 1.6 per match, while Savoia scored 10 goals at an average of 2.0. Their defenses also allowed opponents opportunities: the hosts conceded an average of 1.0 goal, compared with 1.6 for the visitors, whose average xG against was as high as 1.96. Picerno created chances worth 1.23 xG per match, while Savoia averaged 1.41, meaning both sides have solid grounds for scoring. The lack of complete season data limits the confidence of the prediction, but recent form and the high BTTS percentage support the “Yes” pick.

The available data from the last 5 matches indicates an attacking profile for both teams: Picerno averaged 1.6 goals scored, while Savoia averaged as many as 2.0. The visitors also conceded 1.6 goals per match, compared with 1.0 for Picerno, supporting a scenario with at least two goals. The 2.5 goal line was surpassed in 80% of Picerno’s last matches and in 100% of Savoia’s matches, while both teams scored in 80% of these games. The estimated xG figures are 1.23 for Picerno and 1.41 for Savoia, with their opponents allowing 1.96 and 1.39 xG respectively; therefore, Over 1.5 goals is the strongest and most likely selection.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Picerno win, as the hosts were level at the break in 60% of their last five matches, while Savoia recorded the same outcome in 50%. The opening stages could be evenly contested: Picerno averaged 0.6 goals scored and conceded before half-time, whereas Savoia scored 1.25 goals but also allowed opponents to score 0.5. After the break, the hosts’ defensive advantage is clear, as they conceded an average of just 0.4 goals in second halves and kept a clean sheet in 80% of those periods. Savoia did average 1.0 goal per match after half-time, but they also conceded exactly 1.0, giving Picerno a realistic chance to turn the draw in their favour. The hosts are also supported by a more consistent run of results: they won 3 of their last 5 matches and suffered just 1 defeat, while Savoia lost twice.