Pineto vs Livorno: match statistics

Livorno come into this match on the back of a stronger run of form: they have collected 7 points from their last five games, winning 3 times, while Pineto have picked up 5 points and suffered 2 defeats. The visitors scored 8 goals during this period, averaging 1.6 per game, compared with Pineto’s 4 goals, clearly indicating greater attacking efficiency. Livorno’s defence also appears slightly more reliable, having conceded 5 goals in five appearances, compared with Pineto’s 6. In addition, Livorno opened the current campaign with a 2:1 victory, whereas Pineto drew their opening match 0:0. The visitors’ advantage is not overwhelming, so a draw remains a realistic possibility; however, the balance of evidence favours a Livorno win.

The signal for both teams to score is driven primarily by their current form: both Pineto and Livorno recorded BTTS in 60% of their last 5 matches. During this period, Livorno averaged 1.6 goals scored, while Pineto conceded 1.2; meanwhile, the hosts have an xG of 1.34, with Livorno’s xG against standing at 1.66. Pineto have recently scored just 0.8 goals per match, but Livorno conceded 5 goals in 5 appearances and allowed opponents an average of 1.66 xG. Additionally, in the available seasonal home data, the hosts scored 2.0 goals per match, and their games ended with BTTS in 100% of cases, although this is a very limited sample. The league has a low BTTS rate of 40%, so the advantage for BTTS - Yes is not strong; however, the current attacking and defensive numbers of both teams point slightly towards a goal for each side.

In their last five matches, Pineto averaged 0.8 goals scored, while Livorno averaged 1.6, with both teams conceding 1.2 and 1.0 goals per game, respectively. The attacking potential is moderate: the average xG stands at 1.34 for Pineto and 1.47 for Livorno, while the hosts allowed opponents just 1.01 xG. In only 40% of each team’s last five matches were there at least 3 goals, while the league-wide average is just 2.1 goals per game. The projected 2.35 goals point to a realistic chance of a match finishing with two or three goals, giving Under 3.5 a clear edge.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Livorno win at full-time (X/2), as the visitors have been level at the break in 60% of their last five matches and subsequently won 60% of those games. Over the same period, Pineto have been trailing at half-time in 60% of their matches, scoring just 0.2 goals per game before the interval while conceding 0.6. After the break, Livorno show a clear advantage: they average 1.0 goals scored and 0.4 conceded, compared with Pineto’s averages of 0.6 scored and 0.6 conceded. The hosts’ season-long data is based on a very small sample, whereas current form clearly favours Livorno, who have averaged 2.0 points per match compared with Pineto’s 1.0.