Piratas vs Cancún: match statistics

Piratas are clear favorites, primarily due to their home form: they have won 100% of their home matches so far, have not conceded a goal in them, and average 1 goal scored per game. Cancún, meanwhile, have lost all of their away fixtures, conceding as many as 4 goals per match, while their average xG against stands at a high 2.50. The hosts create higher-quality chances, with an xG of 1.55 compared to the visitors’ 1.19, and also average 6 shots on target versus Cancún’s 4. The difference is further reflected in their control of the game: Piratas enjoy 53% possession, while the visitors have only 30%. In their last matches, Piratas have collected 7 points from 4 games, whereas Cancún have suffered 3 defeats in five appearances and conceded 9 goals during that period.

Piratas are clear favourites to score, as Cancún concede an average of 4.0 goals per match, have kept no clean sheets, and their average xG against is as high as 2.50. However, a signal against BTTS comes from the hosts’ defence: over their last five matches, they conceded just 0.5 goals per game with an xG against of 0.81, while across the season they have kept a clean sheet in 50% of matches. Cancún score only 1.0 goal on average, and their season-long attacking xG stands at 1.19, which does not provide a particularly strong basis for breaking down the Piratas’ well-functioning defence. Although the visitors recorded BTTS in 60% of their last five matches, the hosts have had no such fixture during the same period, making the scenario in which at least one team fails to score more likely.

Piratas create chances worth an average of 1.59 xG at home and take 13.5 shots per match, while Cancún allow opponents as much as 2.50 xG and concede an average of 4.0 goals. The hosts should therefore account for a significant share of the projected 1.85 goals, although their conversion rate is just 7%. Cancún generate an average of 1.19 xG and 4.0 shots on target, but Piratas have allowed just 0.81 xG and conceded 0.5 goals per match in their recent games, limiting the visitors’ projection to 1.05 goals. Over 1.5 goals has landed in 100% of the teams’ matches so far, and Cancún’s weak defense gives this line a clear edge over the more demanding Over 2.5 goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Piratas win at full-time (X/2), as the hosts have been level at the break in 75% of their recent matches, scoring an average of just 0.0 goals during that period. Piratas improve markedly after half-time: in their recent matches, they have averaged 1.0 goal scored, conceded none, and collected an average of 2.0 points per game in the second half. Cancún remain weak in decisive phases, having lost the second half in 60% of their recent matches, scoring only 0.2 goals and conceding 1.2. The hosts’ advantage is further supported by their overall match record: Piratas average 1.75 points and concede 0.5 goals, while Cancún earn 0.8 points and allow opponents to score 1.8 goals per match.