Pisa vs Calcio Padova: match statistics

Calcio Padova sit 5th, while Pisa are only 16th, giving the visitors a significant edge in the overall league standings. In their last five matches, Padova scored 6 goals and conceded 9, while Pisa, with the same attacking output of 6 goals, allowed as many as 10. The visitors won 2 of their last 5 matches and averaged 1.2 points per game, compared with just 1 win and 0.8 points per game for Pisa. Both defences are prone to errors, so a draw remains a realistic outcome, but Padova’s superior league position and slightly stronger recent form give them the edge. The lack of reliable home and away statistics limits the extent of this advantage, but a narrow away win is the more likely scenario.

Recent form points to an increased risk of goals at both ends: Pisa conceded an average of 2.0 goals in their last 5 matches, while Padova conceded 1.8. Both teams scored 6 goals during this period, averaging 1.2 per match, providing a solid basis for expecting each side to find the net. BTTS - Yes landed in 60% of Pisa’s last five matches and in 40% of Padova’s games, so the signal is moderately favorable for the “Yes” option. However, Pisa created only 0.74 xG per match, meaning the BTTS edge is not decisive; nevertheless, defensive figures allowing 1.41 and 1.78 xG respectively support the expectation of at least one goal from each team.

In their last five matches, Pisa averaged 1.2 goals scored but conceded as many as 2.0, while Padova scored 1.2 and allowed opponents 1.8 goals. The combined average number of goals in these runs was 3.2 in Pisa’s matches and 3.0 in Padova’s, clearly supporting a scenario with at least two goals. Pisa had Over 2.5 goals in 80% of their last five matches, compared with 40% for Padova, giving an average signal of 60% for this line. The xG data also suggest chances at both ends: Padova created an average of 1.18 xG, while Pisa allowed opponents 1.41 xG. The strongest option is Over 1.5, as the weaker defenses of both teams make it highly likely that the low line will be surpassed.

The full-season data contain no meaningful values, so the greatest weight is placed on the last five matches played by both teams. Pisa led at the break in 40% of those fixtures and averaged 1.2 goals before half-time, while Padova had not led at the break in any of them and averaged 0.8 goals. After the interval, however, the picture clearly favours the visitors: Padova averaged 0.4 goals, whereas Pisa failed to score, and the hosts conceded an average of 0.8 goals during this period. Padova also have the better recent overall record, with a 40% win rate and an average of 1.2 points per match, compared with Pisa’s 20% win rate and 0.8 points per match. The scenario in which Pisa lead at half-time before Padova complete a turnaround best combines the hosts’ first-half advantage with the visitors’ greater effectiveness after the break.