Pisa vs Genoa: match statistics

Genoa are the favorites: Pisa have only 2 wins this season and sit 20th, while Genoa have 9 wins and are 13th. In attack Pisa average 0.44 goals per home match and failed to score in 69% of home games, whereas Genoa average 1.13 goals away and have only 27% of matches without a goal; shot conversion is 4% versus 10%. Defensively Pisa conceded 14 goals in the last 5 matches (2.8 per game), despite a seasonal home concession rate of 1.19, while Genoa conceded 6 goals in the last 5 (1.2 per game) and collected an average of 1.8 points per match in that period versus Pisa’s 0.6. xG metrics show Pisa with xG 1.15 at home and xG against 1.39, and Genoa with xG 1.22 away and xG against 1.71, which together indicate a higher number of quality chances and better efficiency for the visitors. Considering the season goal differential (Genoa 38 vs Pisa 23), recent form and the conversion advantage, I predict an away win.

Genoa have an away BTTS of 67% while Pisa at home have 47%, against a league BTTS rate of 46%, which favors a Goal/Goal scenario. However, in the last 5 matches Pisa registered BTTS in only 20% and scored on average 0.6 goals, whereas Genoa had BTTS in 40% and averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, which partially limits confidence but does not rule out BTTS. Supporting the both-teams-to-score case is the chance-creation profile: seasonally Pisa have xG_for 1.37 versus Genoa xG_against 1.71 and Pisa average 12.29 shots and 4.18 on target at home, while Genoa average 11.27 shots and 3.87 on target away, so both sides generate opportunities. Seasonal goal totals (Pisa 23 scored / 58 conceded; Genoa 38/45) and low clean sheet expected percentages 24% (Pisa) and 20% (Genoa) indicate both teams frequently concede. Considering these figures, I predict BTTS - Yes with a probability of 68% versus 32% for No.

The xG-based model projects total expected goals of 2.76: Pisa 1.54 (attacking xG 1.37 versus Genoa’s average xG conceded 1.71) and Genoa 1.22 (attacking xG 1.22 versus Pisa’s xG conceded 1.22). At this total I estimate approximately a 76% probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) and about 52% probability of at least 3 goals (Over 2.5). Seasonal indicators support this signal — Pisa has 76% of matches Over 1.5, Genoa 87%, while BTTS is 47% and 67% respectively. In the last 5 matches Pisa concedes on average 2.8 goals, Genoa has scored 6 goals (1.2 avg), and the two teams combine for 23.56 shots and 8.05 shots on target per game, which further favors goals. Based on this, I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest line to play (76% Over vs 24% Under).

I expect a draw at Half-Time, because Pisa were level at the break in 53% of home matches and Genoa were level at the break in 40% of away fixtures; first-half goals average 1.12 for Pisa and 1.07 for Genoa, indicating an even, low-scoring opening half. After the break I lean to a home victory — Pisa accrued 24 points in second halves, averaging 1.41 points after the break, whereas Genoa have 15 points and average 1.00 point in second halves. Offensive metrics support this: Pisa’s home xG is 1.37 versus Genoa’s away xG of 1.22, and Genoa concedes 1.71 xG on average away, which increases Pisa’s chances of goals after the break. Season-long comparisons also favour Pisa — the hosts average 1.29 points per match and have a 35% home win rate, while Genoa average 0.93 points away and a 20% away win rate. Given these specific figures, the strongest scenario is a Half-Time draw and a Pisa win Full-Time (X/1), to which I assign the highest probability in the distribution.